Monday, August 29, 2011

Imprudent unions & weak industries of Nepal

This was published in Republica, August 27, 2011. For an earlier discussion on the same issue, please check this blog post.


Imprudent unions & weak industries

The economy is in such a mess that we really don’t need any more negative news to further dampen market confidence. The political instability, deteriorating industrial relations, power outages, misplaced government emphasis on cooperatives, and strikes have been already enough to discourage investors. Now, add to that list the troubles caused by perennially insatiable labor unions that are bickering with industrialists time and again over unjustified demands related to wage and compensation. The latest victim of the trade unions’ irresponsibility and misguided judgment is Surya Nepal Private Limited’s (SNPL) Biratnagar-based garment manufacturing unit, which permanently ceased production.

The blame squarely goes to the unruly and militant trade unions that think more about reaping short-term gains to its top echelons than the welfare of its members and its institutional sustainability. The irresponsible stance and acts of opportunist trade unions and its leaders have cost direct and indirect employment of over 2000 workers, mostly women. Worse, it has sent a very bad signal about market conditions. Investors, foreign and domestic, will now think multiple times before they commit to invest in Nepal, let alone in the manufacturing sector.

Established in 2004 with an investment of approximately Rs 700 million, SNPL’s garment manufacturing unit was producing popular international brands like John Players and Springwood. It was established at a time when the Nepalese garment industry was fast losing its market abroad. It was not only successful in capturing the rapidly growing Indian market, but also exported garments to the US, Canada, and the EU. Needless to say, it was also popular in the domestic market. Finally, we had a manufacturing firm that could compete in the international market and also be successful in the domestic market. This was the kind of manufacturing firm we needed to help reduce ballooning trade deficit— by increasing exports and at the same time supply goods to the domestic market to substitute imported garments.

Alas, the unruly unions cost us an established garment manufacturing firm that was providing hundreds of jobs, and contributing revenue and foreign exchange reserves. At one time the garment industry was the stronghold of our industrial sector. Now, this beleaguered sector is struggling to survive amidst loss of competitiveness and markets, mainly attributable to erosion of preferences following the expiry of Agreement on Textiles and Clothing (ATC) in 2005, and increase in cost of production due to inefficient production, power outages, frequent strikes and persistent labor unrest, which particularly intensified after 2006.

Previously, the political instability and labor union militancy in the industrial sector led to exit of multinational companies (MNCs) that have been providing hundreds of jobs and supporting numerous households. The Maoist-affiliated labor unions, through their idiotic demands, chased away Colgate Palmolive and Dabur Nepal, and briefly stopped Varun Beverage Nepal Ltd—the bottler of Pepsi—from operation, leading to withdrawal of planned investment of approximately Rs 1 billion. The trade unions have failed to acknowledge the fact that locking up management staff, threatening businessmen, smashing equipment in factories, opening camps inside industrial zones, seizing land and making a mockery of private property right, demanding compulsory donation, and having my way or the highway attitude will do nothing but erode whatever meager confidence investors have on the Nepalese economy. No wonder, Nepal is consistently ranked as one of the less investor friendly destinations to do business. Its hire and fire policies are one of the most rigid in the world.

There is nothing wrong in having strong trade unions that care about its members and the firms where they are employed. But, in our case it is not so. Two fundamental problems inflict our industrial sector: policy inconsistency and stance inconsistency. First, there is policy inconsistency on the part of government, especially with regard to the methodology of fixing wage and compensation of workers in the industrial sector. The Ministry of Labour and Transport Management (MoLTM) does not have a structured industrial conflict resolution framework. Most of the decisions are taken in an ad-hoc basis, leading to policy inconsistency. For instance, the latest industrial strike flared up after the MoLTM unilaterally revised wage and compensation to please some trade unions and its leaders. This was against the agreement between the major trade unions and industrialists and was also being looked upon by the Supreme Court. Most of the time settlement of labor disputes has happened at the whim of influential political leaders, union bosses and ministers. In SNPL’s case, persistent labor dispute over wage and compensation and demand for salary even for days not worked (the company says it followed ‘no work, no pay’ principle) culminated into lock up of management staff of the garment factory. This led to cancellation of existing and future orders and ultimately closing down of the factory.

Second, and the biggest culprit of all, are the trade unions and inconsistency in their stance on major labor issues. The top echelon of trade union has become a bunch of selfish opportunists that care more about sucking concession and donations from the industrialists to please their political masters than advocate the welfare of hardworking workers in factories. At times, the ego problem and governance issues within trade unions have led to union break-ups—the seeds of more industrial disputes. It has led to ever-changing wage and compensation demands of trade unions. Even if the industrialists agree to jack up wages and compensation, one or the other trade unions object to it. It leads to a war in pressing for higher demand, undo the agreements already sealed, and hoodwink workers by making false promise of wages increase if they go for strikes. The wage rates have been revised multiple times this year alone. The question is: What is the final deal and stance? Moreover, what is baffling is that the demands of unions are not matched by labor productivity (see ‘Union Strikes & Productivity’, Republica, 24 March, 2011). How can you increase wage and compensation if marginal labor productivity does not increase proportionally?

No matter how far the industrialists stretch their neck to reach out to unions for an amicable and sustainable solution, they are unable to do so due to the unruly and always unsatisfied trade unions and their bosses, who are bestowed with the blessing of crooked political leaders. The unions are so illogical that even when struggling factories want to close down operation after paying due compensation and swallowing ‘sunk cost’, they are arguing that investors can’t do that. This is utter nonsense. There is no relief from unions before opening, during operation and after closing down a firm. The trade unions should digest the fact that investors are here to do business, not charity. The unions are there because workers are employed by factories. The one-sided action of unions is leading to strike-unemployment cycle (see ‘Strike-unemployment cycle’, Republica, 17 December, 2009). The Maoist-affiliated trade unions are on the forefront of this destructive process.

The closure of the SNPL’s garment manufacturing unit sends a frightening message to potential investors and MNCs. This threat is never acknowledged by trade unions mired in money and politics. Worse, the government is under-acknowledging the situation right now. It will have a disastrous impact on the already stagnating economic activities. The unruly and uncompromising trade unions and their bosses should be held responsible for the loss of over 2000 jobs in the garment manufacturing plant in Biratnagar.



Saturday, August 27, 2011

Impact of infrastructure spending on household welfare in rural Nepal

Did expenditure on access to rural roads irrigation infrastructure, and extension services have significant impact on household welfare over the period of Ninth Five-Year Plan (1997-2002) in Nepal?

A new research monograph by IFPRI shows that the effect of rural roads is robust across two different econometric strategies, while the effect of irrigation and extension services on household welfare is less robust. Access to rural roads improved households’ welfare as measured by land values, consumption growth, poverty reduction, and agricultural income growth. The research also shows statistically significant impacts of irrigation using a hedonic model, while an alternative panel data approach did not yield significant  estimates of the impact of access to irrigation or extension services. What explains this inconsistency? The authors point their fingers to measurement inaccuracies of the irrigation variable at the household level, which is aggregated from the plot level, rather than to true ineffectiveness.

The authors (Dillon, Sharma and Zhang) argue agriculture growth expectations was below the target set in the Ninth Five-Year Plan and large gains in poverty reduction have been largely driven by rural-to-urban migration and remittances. This is also somewhat corroborated by the latest findings of NLSS III and migration survey.

They argue that growth in rural areas can be attained by harnessing its comparative advantages, particularly those hinged on agro-ecological environment. Realizing this potential would require increasing connectivity of rural areas with roads, integrating farmers with markets and increasing their productive capacity by improving access to irrigation.


In our hedonic estimates of the effect of extension on land values in 1995/96, we find that access to extension had a positive yet insignificant effect, while our 2003/04 estimates suggest a larger, statistically significant effect. However, in the panel household analysis, we find that access to extension in 1995/96 did not have a significant impact on growth in household welfare. Due to civil strife, the initial frequency of extension visits might not have been related to agricultural productivity and other welfare indicators seven years later. The inconsistency of the estimated impact of extension service between the two methods calls for more in-depth research in the future.


Friday, August 26, 2011

The US Ambassador to Nepal reads Nepali economy better than our own policymakers and analysts

The US Ambassador to Nepal, Scott H Delisi, delivered a speech yesterday in Kathmandu. I did not attend the program but did go through his speech. He strikes at the heart of our (read political leaders and wonks) inability to connect economic prosperity with politics. We don’t have economic discourse as we should to create a “New Nepal”, which is still illusionary among most of the people. Very few analysts have raised the pertinent and pressing economic issues as bluntly and as precisely needed (self-advertisement: yours truly have tried to do that in many op-ed columns, research, events and blog posts!). 

Below are excerpts from Ambassador Delisi’s speech:


[…] During my sixteen months here, I have been continually surprised how little public debate and discussion there is about Nepal’s economic challenges.  I have met with dozens of senior political leaders during my time in Nepal – from prime ministers to local party cadres – and invariably the discussion focuses on the peace process, the constitution, and, more often than not, their party's plans to retain or gain control of the levers of political power.

[…]my surprise, and at times dismay, that so many of those who aspire to lead the nation appear to have not devoted the same degree of attention to  the nation’s development strategy, the strengthening of the economy, and the creation of jobs, as they have to their political agenda. 

[…] I certainly believe that these issues give rise to fundamental definitional issues for the "new" Nepal.   What protections will you give to private property? How will you manage land reform?  What are the agricultural policies that can lead to food security?  How do you balance cooperatives and private enterprise?  How do you create jobs for the future?  How long can you sustain an economy built largely on customs revenue and exporting your youth to labor abroad? 

[…] I described these issues as "definitional" and I think they are.  When I ask young men and women here what it means to be a Nepali in the "new Nepal" they struggle to answer.   I think part of the reason is that these, and other issues related to fundamental values about governance and the purposes to which power should be put, have not yet been clearly articulated.  

At the same time, Nepal’s own business houses are focused only on short-term profits.  Many seek to avoid paying taxes and maneuver to sneak their money out of the country.  Young entrepreneurs who want to start businesses must deal with rent-seeking behavior from government officers who are supposed to help them.  Many State-owned enterprises -- which often are staffed through political favoritism rather than as a result of merit – are badly managed, draining resources from state coffers while failing to provide services.

[…] I was very disheartened to learn that Surya Nepal, one of the few companies that remain competitive in Nepal’s readymade garment sector, has closed down its operations due to labor problems. More than 2,000 people – mainly women –employed directly or indirectly through Surya's operation, have lost their jobs.  In my opinion, the closure was a setback for the country’s economic development and diminishes our efforts to convince foreign investors that Nepal is open for business. In a globalized world where countries have to compete for foreign investment and the success of a business depends on timely delivery of goods and services, labor disputes that hold companies' operations hostage for months inevitably lead to such unfortunate consequences.

Equally troubling, some political leaders seem to view businesses as sources of funding for their parties – or even worse – as targets to be exploited for their personal gain.  The private sector accepts the status quo as the price of doing business in Nepal.  Both the exploitation and the acquiescence undermine Nepal’s long-term economic prospects and ultimately democracy.

[…] Remittances may currently be the lifeblood of Nepal's economy but those who suggest that remittances are positive for Nepal in the long run fundamentally misunderstand economic realities. Like an addictive drug that feels good today but causes devastation in the long run, remittances provide a short term boost to the economy but only forestall the need to make tough economic choices – which are even harder to accommodate the longer government waits.  In Nepal today, remittance flows are fueling increased consumption but by all indicators, are not being channeled into productive investment.  Meanwhile, Nepal’s competitiveness and productivity continue to decline over the long term.


He believes that prospects for a prosperous Nepal are not that gloomy. Sectoral opportunities exist if we have the will to exploit them. Some of the sectors identified by Ambassador Delisi are IT outsourcing, tourism, hydropower, reforming SOEs, and agriculture.

An excellent rundown of some of the economic challenges (precisely the process—socio-political-economic— of what hinders exploiting our potential) by Ambassador Delisi. I just wish that our political and industrial leaders and those at the top echelon of policymaking at least articulately state what the ambassador has said. These are well-known stuff, but people are failing to articulate and have debate over them.

For more on some of the issues, do check out my articles listed below:

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Does high food prices cause political instability?

 Lagi, Bertrand and Bar-Yam show that the timing of violent protests in North Africa and the Middle East in 2011 as well as earlier riots in 2008 coincides with large peaks in global food prices. So, yes rising food prices (above a certain threshold) might induce riots and political instability.

They identify a specific food price threshold (the FAO’s Food Price Index of 210; the index as of June 2011 was at 234) above which protests become likely. It suggests “that protests may reflect not only long-standing political failings of governments, but also the sudden desperate straits of vulnerable populations.”

Below is a chart showing time dependence of FAO Food Price Index from January 2004 to May 2011. Red dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates of “food riots" and protests associated with the major recent unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. The overall death toll is reported in parentheses.

The researchers argue that food prices will permanently rise above the 210 threshold within a yea or two. They argue that the major causes of rise in food prices are investor speculation and ethanol production. Hence, they argue “reducing the amount of corn converted to ethanol, and restricting commodity future markets to bona fide risk hedging would reduce global food prices.”

The FAO food price index just below 220 in July 2012 would increase the changes of having more instability, they predict.

The chart above shows time dependence of FAO Price Index at current prices (upper black curve) and constant prices (corrected for inflation, lower blue curve) from January 2004 to May 2011. Red dashed vertical lines correspond to beginning dates of food riots and events associated with the major recent unrest in North Africa and the Middle East. Black and blue horizontal lines represent the price threshold above which riots are ignited in current and constant prices respectively. Index backgrounds are fitted with a third-order polynomial; intersection with the threshold (July 2012 at current prices, August 2013 at prices corrected for world inflation) represents the point of instability.

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Retail prices of wheat and rice in South Asia

The charts below show retail prices of wheat and rice in one major city of each South Asian country (except for Maldives for which there is no data available).

Retail price of rice increased in all countries during mid-2008. It cooled off a little bit but is still high and rising. Overall, retail price of rice is highest in Pakistan. It is followed by Sri Lanka, India, Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh. Retail price of wheat in Bhutan is rising rapidly even though it still has lower price than in Bangladesh. Price of rice is picking up since the beginning of this year.

As of July 2011, retail price of a kilo of rice was USD 0.59, USD 0.52, USD 0.51, USD 0.49, USD 0.47 and USD 0.44 in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh respectively. In July 2008, they figures were USD 0.74, USD 0.58, USD 0.47, USD 0.54, USD 0.35, and USD 0.50 in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India, Nepal, Bhutan and Bangladesh respectively.

Retail price of wheat spiked in mid-2008 and then cooled off a bit before rising again. As of July 2011, Sri Lanka has the highest retail price of wheat, followed by Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. Sri Lanka and Nepal are seeing a rapid rise in retail price of wheat.

As of July 2011, retail price of a kilo of wheat was USD 0.78, USD 0.52, USD 0.51, USD 0.43, USD 0.38, USD 0.38, USD 0.34 and USD 0.34 in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India. In July 2008 the figures were USD 0.69, USD 0.68, USD 0.43, USD 0.35, USD 0.41, USD 0.55, and USD 0.30 in Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, Bangladesh and India respectively.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Nepal’s sovereign rating

Nepal does not have a sovereign rating. Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch, the three international rating agencies, have not rated Nepal. Altogether 58 developing countries are still not rated by them. Canuto, Mohapatra and Ratha of the World Bank followed the same methodology used by S&P to estimate the rating of the unrated developing countries.

As of April 2011, Nepal got CCC+, Maldives B+ to BB+, Bhutan and Bangladesh BB- to BB. Nepal falls under the "high default risk" category; Maldives “highly speculative”; and Bhutan “speculative”. The rating is based on a regression outcome with the independent variables GNI per capita, GDP growth rate, debt to exports ratio, reserves to imports to short term debt, growth volatility, inflation and rule of law.

Transatlantic economies whipsawed by globalization

Jeff Sachs writes:


A failure of economic strategy and leadership lies behind the near simultaneous collapse of market confidence in the euro zone and US economies. No need to blame the rating agencies: governments in Europe and America have been unable to cope with the realities of global capital markets and competition from Asia – and deserve the lion’s share of the blame.

I’ve watched dozens of financial crises up close, and know that success means showing the public a way out that is bold, technically sound and built on social values. Transatlantic leadership is falling short on all counts. Neither the US nor Europe has even properly diagnosed the core problem, namely that both regions are being whipsawed by globalisation.

Jobs for low-skilled workers in manufacturing, and new investments in large swaths of industry, have been lost to international competition. Employment in the US and Europe during the 2000s was held up only by housing construction stoked by low interest rates and reckless deregulation – until the construction bubble collapsed. The path to recovery now lies not in a new housing bubble, but in upgraded skills, increased exports and public investments in infrastructure and low-carbon energy. Instead, the US and Europe have veered between dead-end, consumption-oriented stimulus packages and austerity without a vision for investment.


Sachs outlines three fiscal policies for the US and the EU.

  • Expand investments in human and infrastructure capital.
  • Cut wasteful spending, for instance in misguided military engagements in places such as Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen.
  • Balance budgets in the medium term, in no small part through tax increases on high personal incomes and international corporate profits that are shielded by loopholes and overseas tax havens.