Tuesday, November 9, 2010

Latest on remittances and the Nepali economy

Nepal was the fourth highest recipient of remittances (measured as % of GDP) in 2009. Remittances amounted to 23 percent of GDP in 2009. In terms of total amount received, migrant remittances was the highest in India in 2010, amounting to an estimated US$ 55 billion. It is followed by China (US$ 51 billion), Mexico (US$ 23 billion), the Philippines (US$ 21 billion), France (US$ 16 billion), Germany (US$ 12 billion), Bangladesh (US$ 11 billion), Belgium, Spain and Nigeria (US$ 10 billion each). See this blog post for more discussion on the new estimates of remittances.

Latest migration stats about Nepal:

Emigration, 2010

  • Stock of emigrants: 982.2 thousands
  • Stock of emigrants as percentage of population: 3.3%
  • Top destination countries: India, Qatar, the United States, Thailand, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Brunei Darussalam, Australia, Canada

Skilled emigration, 2000

  • Emigration rate of tertiary-educated population: 5.3%
  • Emigration of physicians: 40 or 3.3% of physicians trained in the country

Immigration, 2010

  • Stock of immigrants: 945.9 thousands
  • Stock of immigrants as percentage of population: 3.2%
  • Females as percentage of immigrants: 68.2%
  • Refugees as percentage of immigrants: 13.8%
  • Top source countries: India, Bhutan, Pakistan, China, Australia, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Maldives, New Zealand

Net ODA received was US$0.7 billion, exports of goods and services was US$1.5 billion in 2008. Remittances inflows are almost two times the size of exports of goods and services and five times the size of official development assistance. Outward remittance flows is decreasing—it was US$ 26 million in 2003, but only US$ 12 million in 2009.

Remittances, US$ millions
Year Workers remittances Compensation of employees Migrants' transfer Total inward remittances flows
2003 744 27 - 771
2004 793 30 - 823
2005 1126 85 - 1212
2006 1373 80 - 1453
2007 1647 87 - 1734
2008 2581 146 - 2727
2009 2858 127 1 2986
2010 (e) - - - 3513

Nepal was the 4th highest recipient of remittances in 2009

Nepal was the fourth highest recipient of remittances (measured as % of GDP) in 2009. Remittances amounted to 23 percent of GDP in 2009.

In terms of total amount received, migrant remittances was the highest in India in 2010, amounting to an estimated US$ 55 billion. It is followed by China (US$ 51 billion), Mexico (US$ 23 billion), the Philippines (US$ 21 billion), France (US$ 16 billion), Germany (US$ 12 billion), Bangladesh (US$ 11 billion), Belgium, Spain and Nigeria (US$ 10 billion each).

The latest Migration and Development Brief 13 shows that remittances remained more resilient compared to private capital flows during the global economic crisis. It has begun to recover in 2010. It estimates that officially recorded remittances flows to developing countries would be US$ 325 billion in 2010. It will be an increase by 6 percent after a fall by 5.5 percent in 2009. The WB economists forecast that remittances flows to developing countries will increase by 6.2 percent in 2011 and 8.1 percent in 2012 to reach US$346 billion in 2011 and US$ 374 billion in 2012. There are about 215 million migrants (3% of world population) in the world.

Remittances flows to South Asia are estimated to have grown by 10.3 percent in 2010 and are expected to grow at relatively slower rates of 5.1 percent and 6.3 percent in 2011 and 2012 respectively. The brief notes that flows to South Asia are facing the risk of a lagged effect of the slowdown in construction on the GCC countries.

The brief points out three major trends:

  • A high level of unemployment in the migrant-receiving countries has prompted restrictions on new immigration
  • The application of mobile phone technology for domestic remittances has failed to spread to cross-border remittances
  • Developing countries are becoming more aware of the potential for leveraging remittances and diaspora wealth for raising development finance.

UPDATE (2010-11-10): Based on how you look at the number, Nepal was either fourth or fifth highest recipient of remittance. If you look at whole number, it is equal to Moldova’s (so two fourth positions). If you go for decimal number, Nepal’s remittance inflow is one percentage lower (in terms of percent of GDP) than Moldova’s. That way its fifth highest recipient of remittance.