Monday, August 15, 2011

IMF’s assessment of Nepal’s economy in 2010/11

An IMF staff team has concluded 2011 Article IV Consultation in Nepal. The report is yet to be out but here is what the IMF sees going on in Nepal right now. Below are the major points copied from the IMF statement.

  • GDP growth is expected to remain below 4 percent in the near term but in the absence of other shocks, inflation should decline somewhat.
  • The balance of payments should show a small surplus, though it will remain vulnerable to the weak global environment.
  • The delayed adoption of the 2010/11 budget contributed to the weak economic outturn. The timely presentation of the 2011/12 budget to Parliament is therefore welcome.
  • The authorities’ plans to limit domestic financing of the fiscal deficit to 2 percent of GDP is appropriately consistent with macroeconomic and debt sustainability. However, achieving the deficit target will not be easy. Despite the impressive gains in revenues in recent years, slower economic growth could result in lower receipts than envisaged. At the same time, current spending is budgeted to rise substantially, and additional unbudgeted spending pressures could arise, including for reintegrating former combatants. Taking into account all of the above, the authorities are advised to prepare contingency plans to ensure the domestic financing target is met. These should focus on collection of VAT arrears, further improvements in tax administration, and reductions in unproductive subsidies, while safeguarding spending on priority poverty reduction and infrastructure.
  • At the same time, large losses that arose at the Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) in 2010/11 are unsustainable. Adoption of an automatic price adjustment mechanism that ensures the NOC avoids future losses is strongly recommended.
  • As regards monetary and exchange rate policy, the peg should remain the key policy priority. This requires that monetary policy be conducted in a manner that ensures interest rates in Nepal do not fall below those in India. In the current environment, generalized liquidity injections would be inconsistent with this objective.
  • Risks in the financial sector have been building up for some time as financial institutions proliferated in an environment of weak supervision. Excessive exposure of banks and other financial institutions to the real estate sector, where an asset price bubble has now burst, have brought many of these risks to the fore. Well targeted and fully collateralized temporary liquidity support to solvent individual institutions at penalty interest rates is warranted.
  • On the other hand, relaxation of prudential and accounting regulations or blanket provision of liquidity assistance would only postpone addressing the deterioration in financial institutions’ balance sheets, with potentially significant untoward consequences for the economy. The authorities are encouraged to put in place a comprehensive and multi-faceted program of financial sector resolution that includes, among other things, better diagnostic assessments, strengthened supervision and enforcement of prudential regulations, and stronger intervention powers for the NRB.

Contribution of small and young firms to employment & growth

This paper describes a unique cross-country database that presents consistent and comparable information on the contribution of the small and medium enterprises sector to total employment, job creation, and growth in 99 countries. The authors compare and contrast the importance of small and medium enterprises to that of young firms across different economies. They find that small firms (in particular, firms with less than 100 employees) and mature firms (in particular, firms older than 10 years) have the largest shares of total employment and job creation. Small firms and young firms have higher job creation rates than large and mature firms. However, large firms and young firms have higher productivity growth. This suggests that while small firms employ a large share of workers and create most jobs in developing economies their contribution to productivity growth is not as high as that of large firms.

Full paper by Ayyagari and Demirguc-Kunt (2011) here.

Update: More from the paper and a chart:

  • SMEs contribute more to employment in low-income countries than in high-income countries.
  • Small firms not only employ the most people, they also generate the most new jobs. SMEs with 250 or fewer employees generate a median 86.01 percent of the jobs.