Friday, February 8, 2013

How close is Nepal to achieving the MDGs?

Since MDGs are coming to an end in 2015, global leaders, development agencies, CSOs and think-tanks are already talking about post-MDG framework and targets. One proposal is to adopt the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In the last Rio+20 Summit, Nepal proposed focusing on food security and sustainable agriculture; water and sanitation; energy; sustainable cities; natural disaster; green job and social inclusion; and mountain ecosystem. As this discussion moves ahead and the global team of experts come up with some kind of quantifiable development targets for the post-MDG era, it is time to take a look at the achievements made thus far in achieving the MDGs.

Here, I am presenting a table showing the latest achievement and the target in 2015. The information is sourced from MDG Progress Report for Nepal 2010, Nepal Demographic Health Survey 2011, CBS and WB. Targets in parentheses are the revised ones as per Needs Assessment Report, Table 5.A.1. The table shows that Nepal is unlikely to achieve the target of reducing the proportion of employed people living on less than US$1.25 per day (PPP); increasing proportion of births attended by skilled birth attendant; and increasing proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility. All other targets are either achieve, likely to be achieved or potentially likely to be achieved.

Progress against MDGs target
MDGs Specific goals Latest achievement  Target in 2015 Scenario 2015
MDG 1 Proportion of population living on less than US$ 1.25 per day (PPP) (%) 24.8 17 Likely
Proportion of population below national poverty line (%) 25.2 21 Likely
Proportion of employed people living on less than US$ 1.25 per day (PPP) (%) 22 17 Unlikely
Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption (%) 36.1 25 Potentially likely
Proportion of underweight children aged 6–59 months (%) 28.8 29 Likely
Proportion of stunted children aged 6–59 months (%) 41 30  
MDG 2 Net enrolment rate in primary education (%) 91.9 100 Potentially likely
Survival rate to Grade 5 (%) 80.6 100  
Literacy rate for 15–24 years old (%) 88.6 100  
MDG 3 Ratio of girls to boys at primary level 0.9 1 Likely
Ratio of girls to boys at secondary level  1 1 Achieved
Ratio of women to men at tertiary level 0.8 1 Potentially likely
Ratio of literate women to men aged 15–24 years 0.83 1 Potentially likely
MDG 4 Proportion of one-year-old children immunized against measles (%) 88 >90  
Under-five mortality rate (per 1,000 live births)  54 54 (38)  
Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 46 34 (32) Likely
MDG 5 Maternal mortality ratio (per 100,000 live births)  229 213 (134) Likely
Proportion of births attended by skilled birth attendant (%) 36 60 Unlikely
MDG 6 HIV prevalence among population aged 15–49 years (%) 0.49 0.35 Likely
Clinical malaria incidence (per 1,000 population)  5.7 3.8  
Prevalence rate associated with TB (per 100,000 population)  244 210 Likely
Death rate associated with TB (per 100,000 population) 22 20 Likely
MDG 7 Area under forest coverage (%)  39.6 40 Potentially likely
Proportion of population using improved drinking water source (%) 88.6 73 Achieved
Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility (%) 39.5 53 Unlikely

Meanwhile, to achieve the MDG targets, it is estimated that Nepal will need Rs 451 billion between 2011 and 2015. The figure below shows the cumulative resource need, funding available and resource gap to meet the MDGs between 2011 and 2015. The resource gap in achieving MDG Goal 2 (education)  is about 60% of the actual expenditure (Rs 295 billion) in FY2011.

Of course, we need to be also aware of the fact that having the financial resources alone will not be sufficient to achieve the targets.