In an op-ed in Mint, Kelkar, Mashelkar and Rajadhyaksha argue that India's self-reliant movement (Aatmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan) should not be a protectionist agenda. They assert that the organizing principle for global supply chains will be now “just-in-case" scenario in addition to “just-in-time" usual scenario.
India can play an important role in this quest if it remains open to the flow of knowledge and ideas, partly by participating in multilateral institutions and partly by being a centre of trade and investments. The world is unlikely to go all the way back to techno-nationalism. A more likely outcome is selective techno-globalism, with patterns of trade and technology favouring nations that are seen as trustworthy. For example, Britain has proposed recently a “D10 Alliance", which is a club of 10 democracies comprising G7 nations plus India, Australia and South Korea on 5G and emerging technologies. Such a shift will certainly favour India.
It is very likely that the global economy will be reconfigured in the aftermath of the ongoing pandemic. The need for resilience from shocks could mean “just-in-time" will be flanked by “just-in-case" as an organizing principle for global supply chains. It is in our national interest to take advantage of this anticipated reset, by deepening our engagement with the rest of the world rather than sliding towards protectionism.
One way to think of the opportunities is in terms of the three Ts—talent, technology and trust. India is well placed in terms of talent and technology. It needs more trust, not just in others but also in itself; or more self-confidence. The goal of atmanirbharta (self-reliance) will be meaningfully met if it is complemented with atmavishwas (self-confidence).
A confident India, which is already a lower middle-income country, and which needs to avoid the middle-income trap, should not be afraid to engage with the world, for trade, for investment, for ideas, for innovation. Embracing economic isolation at this turning point in the global system will be a strategic mistake.
