Saturday, June 13, 2015

Post-earthquake needs requirement estimated at 31.4% of GDP in Nepal ($6.66 billion)

The near-final post disaster needs assessment (PDNA) estimate was disseminated by the NPC today and is widely reported in the media. There may be minor adjustment later on as per the updated information/data, but the overall needs estimate should be around $6.7 billion.

Using an exchange rate of NRs100 = US$1 and FY2015 GDP estimate (preliminary), below are the estimates:

  • Damage: $5.13 billion (24.2% of GDP)
  • Loss: $1.87 billion (8.8% of GDP)
  • Total disaster effect (damage and loss): $7.00 billion (33% of GDP)
  • Lost personal income: $171.3 million (0.8% of GDP)
  • Total needs for reconstruction and rehabilitation: $6.66 billion (31.4% of GDP)
Nepal Post-Disaster Needs Assessment
Sector Damage (NPR millions) Loss (NPR millions) Total Disaster Effect (NPR millions) Lost Personal Income* Total Needs (NPR millions)
Agriculture 16,405.0 11,962.0 28,367.0 4,603.3 15,560.0
Communications 3,610.2 5,084.6 8,694.8   4,938.8
Community Infrastructure 3,349.0 0.0 3,349.0   4,451.0
Cultural Heritage 16,909.0 2,313.0 19,222.0   20,566.9
Disaster Risk Reduction 17.5 137.4 154.9   8,204.0
Education 28,063.8 3,254.3 31,318.1   39,705.0
Electricity 17,807.0 3,435.0 21,242.0   18,586.1
Employment and Livelihoods     0.0   12,548.0
Environment and Forestry 32,960.0 1,061.0 34,021.0   25,197.0
Financial Sector 4,394.0 26,891.0 31,285.0   32,856.0
Gender and Cross Cutting Issues         1,085.0
Governance 16,690.0 0.0 16,690.0   16,644.0
Health and Population 5,197.4 1,139.4 6,336.8   11,269.0
Housing and Human Settlements 303,631.0 46,748.0 350,379.0   327,762.0
Industry and Commerce 17,408.0 16,874.0 34,282.0 6,321.6 27,405.0
Irrigation 382.8 0.4 383.2   467.2
Nutrition         5,036.0
Social Protection         6,398.0
Tourism 18,862.0 62,379.3 81,241.3 6,200.2 41,336.4
Transport 17,188.0 4,930.0 22,118.0   28,185.0
Water and Sanitation 10,505.7 873.4 11,379.1   18,106.1
Total NPR mil. 513,380.4 187,082.8 700,463.2 17,125.1 666,306.4
Total USD mil.  5,133.8 1,870.8 7,004.6 171.3 6,663.1
Share GDP 24.2 8.8 33.0 0.8 31.4

Almost half of the losses, damages and needs are accounted for by the housing and human settlement cluster. Over 0.5 million houses (99% of them private) were destroyed by the earthquake.

Housing cluster accounted for:

  • 59.1% of total damage (14.3% of GDP)
  • 25% of total loss (2.2% of GDP)
  • 50% of total damage and loss (16.5% of GDP)
  • 49.2% of total needs (15.4% of GDP)

Infrastructure cluster accounted for:

  • 10.2% of total damage (2.5% of GDP)
  • 7.7% of total loss (0.7% of GDP)
  • 9.5% of total damage and loss (3.1% of GDP)
  • 11.1% of total needs (3.5% of GDP)
  • Includes communications, community infrastructure, electricity, transport, water and sanitation

Productive cluster accounted for:

  • 11.2% of total damage (2.7% of GDP)
  • 63.1% of total loss (5.6% of GDP)
  • 25.1% of total damage and loss (8.3% of GDP)
  • 100% of total income lost personal income (0.8% of GDP)
  • 17.7% of total needs (5.5% of GDP)
  • Includes agriculture, financial sector, industry and commerce, irrigation and tourism

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