Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Forecast of key macroeconomic trends till 2050

Here are some of the highlights from The EIU’s long-term macroeconomic forecast. Look at the prominence of India and China, and imagine how Nepal can prosper through trade and investment cooperation (along with decisive tackling of binding constraints to growth).

1. China and India will be the first and third largest economies, respectively, by 2050. China will overtake the US in 2026 in nominal GDP in US dollar terms. India is expected to grow at an average 5% up to 2050. China’s nominal GDP is expected to be $105 trillion and India’s 64 trillion by 2050. The US economy will be of about $71 trillion.

2. Several Asian countries will rise up the economic ladder. Asia will account for over 50% of global GDP by 2050.

3. Population growth (and working-age population) will continue to decline (labor is a major source of growth).

4. Developed countries will continue to have higher income per capita than China and India. Sweden will have income per capita of about $174,995. China and India will register higher income per capita growth rates. An Indian consumer’s spending power will reach 24% of a US consumer’s spending power by 2050 (up from 3% in 2014). A Chinese consumer’s spending power will reach about 50% (up from 14% in 2014).

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