In an excellent article about energy sector in Nepal in New Business Age, Rupak D Sharma argues that given the large generation capacity in pipeline and the prospect of supply outstripping demand, there is no choice but to export electricity (to India and perhaps Bangladesh) in the short-term and then work to increase per capita electricity consumption over the medium-term. Above all, escalating cost of production needs to be controlled.
[...]A total of 15 new projects built by the private sector added 135.39 MW of electricity to the national grid in the last fiscal year. Two projects of NEA, 60MW Upper Trisuli 3A Hydroelectric Project and 14MW Kulekhani III Hydroelectric Project, also came into operation that year. The energy sector is expected to see an addition of over 800 MW of electricity in this fiscal year alone if the 456MW Upper Tamakoshi Hydroelectric Project comes online. What’s more, 131 additional private sector-led projects with a combined capacity of 3,157.19 MW are under construction. And another 112 private sector-led projects with a combined capacity of 2,124.77 MW are in different stages of development, according to NEA’s latest annual report.
[...]Nepal’s energy generation cost has significantly gone up over the years due to a hike in project development cost. A few years ago, the cost of building a hydroelectric project used to hover around Rs 150 million per MW. The cost has now surged by 33 percent to Rs 200 million per MW. This has made electricity expensive, raising the spectre of restricting domestic consumption and making energy generated in Nepal uncompetitive in the foreign market.
[...]In a typical hydropower project, construction materials, such as cement, steel and aggregates, command a weight of about 40 percent in the total development cost, according to Pradhanang. Labour costs make a contribution of around 20 percent to the total cost, while soft costs, such as engineering design and management, command a weight of 25 percent. The share of the cost of electromechanical items in total project development cost stands at about 15 percent.
Over the years, labour costs have surged as most of the youths have left the country for labour destinations in the Gulf, Malaysia and other countries across the globe, creating a shortage of workers. At the same time, prices of construction materials, such as cement, steel and aggregates, have steadily gone up. Each kg of TMT 500D steel now costs Rs 95, as against Rs 75 two years ago. In India, the same product can be bought for INR 34-47 (Rs 54.4-75.2) per kg in the retail market. Cement is also a lot cheaper in India, where a 50-kg bag of OPC can be fetched for INR 300-350 (Rs 480 to Rs 560). The same quality and quantity of cement costs Rs 700 in Nepal, up from Rs 650 in early 2019.
[...]NEA will be in a position to export 25 to 30 MW of electricity round the clock in the next three months, according to NEA Managing Director Hitendra Dev Shakya. By the upcoming rainy season, that capacity will rise to 450 MW. The portion of surplus energy will continue to rise in the coming years, as NEA has already signed agreements to purchase 5,978.13 MW of electricity from 341 private developers, which is four times the current installed capacity. Nepal will not be able to consume all this electricity in the short run, as its electricity demand currently stands at around 1,500 MW; and it will take several more years to increase domestic consumption. This indicates lots of energy will go to waste if it is not exported.
[...]the Indian government in 2021 issued a procedure for cross-border imports and exports of electricity. The procedure, which has been welcomed by Nepal’s private sector power producers, has finally paved the way for government entities and the domestic private sector to export power to India. [...]Yet one question that many ask is whether India needs Nepal’s electricity as its supply has exceeded demand for over two decades. India currently has an installed capacity of approximately 375,325 MW whereas its peak electricity demand stands at 184,033 MW. Nonetheless, India may want to buy Nepal’s electricity as it generates over 60 percent of its energy through thermal sources such as coal, which are not clean. Since India is looking to migrate to clean sources of energy, Nepal may find a small market to sell its electricity. Lately, there are also talks of selling Nepal’s electricity in the Indian spot power market, where prices are relatively higher.
[...]NEA has reached a conclusion that there is no alternative to exporting power in the short run as the domestic market is not in a position to rapidly enhance its electricity consumption. But in the long run Nepal will have to enhance its energy consumption capacity, as electricity is a raw material and if value is added to it to generate other products the country will be able to generate higher returns.
[...]Even if NEA defaults on 1,000 MW of payments, Rs 140 billion in bank credit will be at the risk of going sour, considering per MW construction cost of Rs 200 million and 70 percent debt facility that banks provide. This amount is over 2.5 times the net profit of all commercial banks in the last fiscal year. Such a huge scale of credit default will not only hit the banking sector, but the entire stock market and the economy.
