Third country trade via China, BRI and Nepal, disinterest in SSF and sugar politics

Nepal signs deal with China to access seven Chinese sea and land ports

From The Kathmandu Post: Nepal and China on Monday signed the Protocol on Implementing Agreement on Transit and Transport and six other agreements in Beijing after delegation level talks between President Bidya Devi Bhandari and her Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People. Minister for Foreign Affairs Pradeep Gyawali and Minister for Transport of China Li Xiaopeng signed the agreement on behalf of their respective governments, according to the Nepali Embassy in Beijing. The protocol had been pending since Nepal and China signed the Transit and Transportation Agreement in March 2016 during Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli’s visit to the northern neighbour.

The Transit and Transportation Agreement was signed just months after an undeclared Indian border blockade was lifted, with a view to diversifying Nepal’s trade and paving the way for landlocked Nepal to carry out third country trade through ports in the northern neighbour. But for the third-country trade via China to commence, the protocol was a must.

The signing of the protocol makes it possible for Nepal to use four Chinese sea ports--in Tianjin, Shenzhen, Lianyungang and Zhanjiang--and three land ports--in Lanzhou, Lhasa and Shigatse--for third-country import. It will also allow Nepal to carry out exports through six dedicated transit points between Nepal and China.

>>Other agreements include:

• Handover Certificate of Grant-Aid for the Repair and Reinforcement Project of the Existing China-aided Projects
• Agreement on Economic and Technical Co-operation
• Minutes of Meeting on Strengthening Assistance Co-operation in the Field of Livelihood in the Northern Region of Nepal
• Agreement on Co-operation and Mutual Administrative Assistance in Customs Matters
• MoU on Co-operation on Standardization between Nepal Bureau of Standards and Metrology (NBSM) and Standardization Administration of China (SAC)
• Agreement on Preventing the Theft, Clandestine Excavation and Illicit Import and Export of Cultural Property

Meanwhile, a joint communique of the Leaders' Roundtable of the 2nd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation included "the Nepal-China Trans-Himalayan Multi-dimensional Connectivity Network, including Nepal-China cross-border railway"

---

Govt continues sugar import restriction until mid-July

From myRepublica: Though Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli had said that he was ‘tricked’ by sugar mills to restrict the import of sugar, the government has continued the quantitative restriction until mid-July. The restriction that was in place until Chaitra end (April 13) was extended till mid-July. According to a notice published in the Government on Nepal Gazette on April 15, the deadline for the import restriction was extended until July 16. The decision to give the import restriction of sugar continuity was taken a week after Prime Minister Oli’s statement criticizing sugar mills for ‘tricking’ him into imposing the quantitative restriction on import of sugar. 

According to the quantitative restriction which was put in place in April 14 last year, the import of sugar exceeding a total quantity of 94,900 tons was restricted. As sugar of that quantity has already been imported, there won’t be sugar imports anymore. The decision to impose restriction on imports, however, was not free from the controversy. Consumer activists have criticized the government for bowing down to sugar mills’ pressure to restrict imports which prompted price hike immediately after the imports came to a halt. Even Prime Minister Oli, after seven months of the decision, had admitted at a public program that sugar mill owners misled him about the scenario of supply and production of their products to make him impose the restriction. But instead of course correction, the government has not allowed the deadline for the sugar import restriction to lapse. 

Concluding that there was ‘collusion’ between government officials and the sugar mills to artificially drive up prices, the Public Accounts Committee, upon the recommendation of its sub-committee, instructed the Commission for Investigation of Abuse of Authority to investigate.

---

Employers hesitant to join Social Security Fund

From Nayapatrika: सरकारले निकै तामझामका साथ सुरु गरेको सामाजिक सुरक्षा कार्यक्रम कार्यान्वयनमै आशंका उब्जिएको छ । देशभर करिब साढे ९ लाख रोजगारदाता रहेको भए पनि अन्तिम दिन शनिबारसम्म सामाजिक सुरक्षा कोषमा आबद्ध हुने रोजगारदाताको संख्या नगन्य छ । सातै प्रदेशका रोजगारदातालाई सूचीकरणका लागि दिएको समय समाप्त भइसक्दासमेत कोषमा शून्य दशमलव २७ प्रतिशत अर्थात् २ हजार ४ सय ८२ रोजगारदाता मात्रै आबद्ध भएका छन् । ऐनको व्यवस्थाअनुसार कोषमा रोजगारदाता आबद्ध नभएपछि कोषको कार्यान्वयनमै आशंका उब्जिएको हो । पछिल्लोपटक रोजगारदातालाई कोषमा आबद्ध हुने म्याद आगामी असार मसान्तसम्मका लागि थप गरिएको छ । 

कोषको अनलाइन प्रणालीमार्फत रोजगारदाताले सूचीकरण गर्न सक्ने व्यवस्था मिलाइएको थियो । रोजगारदाताले आफू सूचीकरण भएको तीन महिनाभित्र आफ्नो रोजगार सम्बन्ध कायम रहेका श्रमिकलाई कोषमा सूचीकरण गराउनुपर्ने कानुनी व्यवस्था छ । कोषका अनुसार आबद्ध केही रोजगारदाताले हालसम्म ४ हजार ६ सय ३८ श्रमिकलाई मात्र कोषमा सूचीकृत गराएका छन् । सरकारी सेवामा बहाल रहेका तथा सरकारी कोषबाट पारिश्रमिक पाउने व्यक्ति, अनौपचारिक क्षेत्रका श्रमिकहरू र स्वरोजगारीसमेत सामाजिक सुरक्षा कोषमा समेट्ने भनिए पनि सरकारले त्यसतर्फ कुनै कदम चाल्न सकेको छैन । 

How can Nepal sustain high growth rate?

It was published in The Kathmandu Post, 29 April 2019

---

Sustaining high growth rate

Maintaining the current growth rate long-term requires devising a number of sustainable macro-economic policies.

The Central Bureau of Statistics estimated that the economy would likely grow at 6.8 percent in 2018/19, up from 6.3% last year. Since this is the third consecutive year the economy grew by over 6%, some analysts and the government are arguing that the economy is on a solid footing and that double-digit growth is within reach. Finance Minister Dr. Yuba Raj Khatiwada recently argued that the government’s economic outlook is realistic and that it is natural to have large fiscal and current account deficits in an emerging economy like ours.

However, the reality is different. Growth rates in the last three years are above the historical average, beyond the economy’s estimated productive capacity, and are not supported by strong economic fundamentals. The estimated growth rate for FY2019 is well below the government’s ambitious 8 percent target. Expansionary fiscal and monetary policies are increasing external and financial sector vulnerabilities. An unsustainably high current account deficit and large balance of payments shortfall along with declining foreign exchange reserves may compel the government to go for an abrupt policy adjustment in the near future. Fiscal and monetary policies should be sound and geared toward increasing private sector investment along with public capital spending absorption capacity to sustain high growth rates. 

Industrial slowdown

In FY2019, bumper agricultural harvest and pickup in services sector activities and reconstruction related works contributed the most to maintain high GDP growth. Specifically, robust agricultural output is underpinned by favorable monsoon, and high services sector output is supported by wholesale & retail trading, tourism and real estate activities. Wholesale and retail trade activities, whose share of GDP is equal to that of the entire industry sector (composed of mining and quarrying; manufacturing; electricity, gas and water; and construction), mainly depend on remittance-financed imported goods. These drivers of growth are not sustainable and pretty much exogenously driven. 

Instead, industrial output grew at a lower rate than last year because manufacturing and construction activities slowed down. Within industrial sector, electricity, gas and water subsector grew at the fastest rate: 12.4%, up from 9.6% in FY2018 as additional electricity was connected to the national grid and a favorable monsoon increased water flow, which then boosted hydroelectricity generation of projects that depend on run-of-the-river type production. Similarly, mining and quarrying activities are projected to grow at 9.5%, up from 8.9% in FY2018, as mining and quarrying of stones, sand, soil and concrete intensified in response to large and growing demand for reconstruction related materials. The haphazard mining and quarrying of riverbeds and hills, sometimes at the initiation of local governments, is one of the factors for this sub-sector’s robust growth. 

However, slow public capital spending, especially the setback in Melamchi water supply and delay in Upper Tamakoshi hydroelectricity, both of which were expected to be completed by this year after multiple time extensions, dragged down construction sector growth to 8.9% from 10% last year. Similarly, manufacturing activities are projected to grow by 5.8%, much lower than 9.2% in FY2018, indicating the lack of private sector investment as well as loss of both domestic and external markets due to eroding cost and quality competitiveness. Stable supply of electricity and improved industrial relations were not sufficient to jack up manufacturing output. 

It shows that there has not been much improvement in increasing capital spending despite unveiling the budget one-and-a-half months before the start of the fiscal year. The fiscal transfers to subnational governments (which come under recurrent budget of federal government, but capital budget of provincial and local bodies) are not used to create productive capital assets, but on activities that increase unproductive imports (such as vehicles) and on petty projects with high transaction cost but low productive value. No wonder, public gross fixed capital formation is projected to decrease by 8.1%, from 29.4% growth in FY2018.  Furthermore, despite all the talk about investment-friendly legal and operational environment, manufacturing sector growth tanked. Repeated talk about improvements in business climate and adequate supply of inputs (such as electricity and road network) is not translating into action on the ground.

What next?

The foundation for sustaining high economic growth is not solid yet. The 7.7 percent growth in FY2017, the highest since 7.9 percent growth in FY1994, was largely due to a base effect and high spending during the first two phases of local elections. In FY2018, spending during local and parliamentary elections gave a temporary boost to aggregate demand along with notable progress in industrial sector as better electricity supply and a pickup in post-earthquake reconstruction work increased economic activities. In FY2019, it was favorable monsoon, reconstruction works and robust services output underpinned by wholesale and retail trade, tourism and real estate activities. These factors do not alone sustain high growth rate, as they are susceptible to exogenous shocks beyond the control of the government. Furthermore, there will not be elections and reconstruction related temporary fiscal stimulus forever. 

We need to expand supply capacity of the economy to sustain high growth rate and this expansion should be in line with our capacity to manage fiscal and monetary policies. For instance, an expansionary fiscal policy has led to large increase in budget deficit, which in turn is increasing imports and subsequently current account deficit. In addition, it is either crowding out private investment or raising their cost of borrowing. Similarly, expansionary monetary policy has increased credit growth more than deposit growth and that it is flowing mostly to support higher consumption and import. Imports and capital goods accumulation have grown at such a rate that the private sector is worried about slowdown in sales and rapid building up of inventory or stocks. Overly accommodative monetary policy has raised non-performing assets, decreased credit flows to productive sectors, and increased financial sector vulnerabilities. 

To sustain high growth rate, monetary policy should be tightened to ensure that credit growth is in line with deposit growth, consistent with regulatory requirements, and that it goes to productive sectors to augment supply capacity. Meanwhile, fiscal policy should rationalize recurrent spending but increase quantum and quality of capital spending. On regulatory and institutional front, the government should foster competition rather than sectoral cartels. Structural reforms should be implemented, including revising procurement laws and easing procedures to doing business.

The efficiency gains from these measures will contribute to accelerate economic activities on a high and sustainable path, and are better than expansionary fiscal and monetary policies designed to boost short-term aggregate demand at the cost of medium-term fiscal and monetary soundness. Furthermore, they will ensure that productive or supply capacity increases too in a sustainable way.

CBS projects Nepal's GDP to grow at 6.8% in FY2019

On 26 April, Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) estimated that Nepal’s economy (at basic prices) would likely grow at 6.8% in FY2019, up from 6.3% revised estimate for FY2018. However, the projected growth rate is lower than the government’s 8% target. This is the third consecutive year GDP grew by over 6%. The 7.7% growth (at basic prices, FY2001=100) in FY2017 was the highest since FY1994, when GDP grew by 7.9%. That was largely due to a base effect and spending during the first two phases of local elections. 

In FY2018, spending during local and parliamentary elections gave a temporary boost to aggregate demand along with notable progress in industrial sector as better electricity supply and a pickup in post-earthquake reconstruction work increased economic activities. 

In FY2019, bumper agricultural harvest and pickup in services sector activities contributed the most to the GDP growth. Specifically, agricultural, industrial and services sectors are projected to grow by 5.0%, 8.1% and 7.3%, respectively. Agricultural sector contributed 1.6 percentage points, industrial sector 1.3 percentage points and services sector 3.9 percentage points to the overall projected GDP growth of 6.8%. These projections are based on eight to nine months data. 

Specifically, electricity, gas and water sub-sector is projected to grow at the fastest rate (12.4%, up from 9.8% in FY2018), followed by wholesale and retail trade (10.9%, down from 12.3% in FY2018), mining and quarrying (9.5%) and construction (8.9%). These indicate accelerated work in hydroelectricity generation and ongoing construction as well as pickup in reconstruction related activities (public as well as private housing and infrastructure). The high wholesale and retail trade activities are related to the burgeoning import growth and remittance income.  Overall, robust agricultural output is underpinned by favorable monsoon and timely availability of agricultural inputs, and high services sector output is supported by wholesale & retail trading, tourism and real estate activities.

Agricultural output is projected to grow at 5.0%, up from 2.8% in FY2019, largely due to a bumper agricultural harvest (thanks to favorable monsoon) and increase in output of forestry products used for reconstruction activities. In addition to record paddy output, which has a weight of 20.8% in overall agricultural GDP basket and is expected to grow by 8.9% (up from 1.5% decrease in FY2018), good harvest of vegetables, wheat, maize and potato boosted agricultural sector growth. Agricultural commercialization and availability of chemical fertilizers and irrigation facilities also helped to increase agricultural output. 

Industrial output is projected to grow at 8.1%, down from 9.6% in FY2018 and 12.4% in FY2017. Within industrial sector, electricity, gas and water subsector grew at the fastest rate: 12.4%, up from 9.6% in FY2018. About 22MW of additional electricity was connected to the national grid and a favorable monsoon increased water flow, which then boosted hydroelectricity generation of projects that depend on run-of-the-river type production. More electricity is expected to be added to the national grid by the end of this fiscal year. Mining and quarrying activities are projected to grow by 9.5%, up from 8.9% in FY2018, as mining and quarrying of stones, sand, soil and concrete intensified in response to large and growing demand for reconstruction activities. The haphazard mining and quarrying of river beds and hills, sometimes at the initiation of local governments, is one of the factors for this sub-sector’s robust growth.

Meanwhile, construction and manufacturing activities slowed down. Construction activities are projected to grow by 8.9%, down from 10% in FY2018, largely due to the slow capital spending (especially the setback in Melamchi water supply and delay in Upper Tamakoshi hydroelectricity, both of which were expected to be completed last year). Manufacturing activities are projected to grow by 5.8%, much lower than 9.2% in FY2018, indicating the lack of private sector investment as well as loss of both domestic and external markets due to eroding cost and quality competitiveness. Stable supply of electricity and improved industrial relations were not sufficient to jackup manufacturing output. 

Services output is projected to grow at 7.3%, marginally up from 7.2% in FY2018. Within service sector, wholesale and retail trade activities are expected to grow by 10.9%, down from 12.3% in FY2018. This reflects continued strong import demand (as remittance-financed imported goods are traded in the domestic market) and sale of agricultural and industrial goods. Record tourist arrivals and stable supply of electricity underpinned activities in hotels and restaurants. However, 8.3% projected growth for this sub-sector is slower than 9.8% in FY2018. Tourist arrivals increased by 24.8%, reaching a record 1,173,072 in 2018, up from 940,218 in 2016. Expansion of communications network as well as smooth operation of transportation services (including air transport) pushed its growth to 5.9% from 4.6% in FY2018. Financial intermediation is projected to grow by 6.2%, slightly lower than 6.4% in FY2018, reflecting income of NRB, BFIs, insurance board and companies, securities board, EPF and CIF. Real estate activities have picked up and consultancy businesses have flourished, pushing real estate, renting and business activities growth to 6.1%, up from 5.2% in FY2018. All other services sub-sectors are expected to grow by over 5%. 

On the expenditure side, GDP (at market prices) grew by 7.1%, up from 6.7% in FY2018. Consumption accelerated but public fixed investment (public GFCF) decelerated, indicating a slowdown in capital spending. A much higher increase in import and a slower increase in export meant that net export was negative. 

Here are some takeaways from the latest GDP estimate.

First, three consecutive years of over 6% growth is quite remarkable. But, recall that in FY2017 it was a base effect, in FY2018 it was elections and in FY2019 it was favorable monsoon and pick-up in retail and wholesale trade (along with tourism and post-earthquake related reconstruction activities). It means that it was a consumption-led growth (supported by higher remittance income and public recurrent expenditure). Consumption contributes more GDP growth than any other component (except change in stock, which is not a reliable measure but adds up to total GFCF since it is derived residually and statistical discrepancy or error is included). Change in stocks at 25.3% of GDP is unusually high.

Second, is this going to be sustainable? The government is hoping that investment will increase in large infrastructure projects and construction related activities there will drive demand. If this happens along with a substantial uptick in capital spending absorption capacity, then growth around 6% is achievable (favorable monsoon and tourism factors as always). Else, growth may decelerate in the coming days. Note that monetary and fiscal policies have been expansionary, resulting in high credit growth as well as high import growth. The current account deficit is increasing alarmingly, balance of payments is in deficit and forex reserves are decreasing. The government may not be able to continue with larger fiscal deficit (also fiscal stimulus) or distributive programs. It will have to wind down unnecessary expenditure (mostly from recurrent budget) while keeping capital expenditure high and efficient. So, unless public and private investments increase further, this streak of growth rate is not sustainable. 

Third, the slow public capital spending may be one of the reasons why the government was not able to attain its GDP growth target of 8%. Public gross fixed capital formation actually decreased by 8.1%, from 29.4% growth in FY2018. The unveiling of budget one-and-a-half months prior to the start of the fiscal year did not help. Chronically low capital spending is a structural as well as procedural issue. The fiscal transfers to subnational governments (which come under recurrent budget of federal government, but capital budget of provincial and local bodies) are not being used to create capital assets, but on activities that increase unproductive imports (vehicles, etc).

Fourth, despite all the talk about investment-friendly legal and operational environment, manufacturing sector growth plunged to 5.8% from 9.2% in FY2018. Talk is not reflecting into action on the ground. If investment and industrial activities do not pickup, then it will be hard to maintain growth rate of 6% (we are reaching the fiscal limit of public capital spending given the large and growing recurrent spending commitments). Manufacturing sector is just 6.3% of GDP. The high credit growth used to finance imported goods but continued liquidity tightness (with high interest rates) may be affecting manufacturing output. This sector is losing both in terms of cost and quality competitiveness.  

Fifth, like in FY2018, it’s the wholesale and retail trade that is contributing the most to the growth. Out of 6.8% projected GDP growth, this sub-sector alone contributed 1.6 percentage points. Its share in GDP is about 14.8%, which means it as big as the entire industry sector (composed of mining & quarrying, manufacturing, electricity gas and water, and construction). High import growth and remittance income fuel growth of this sub-sector. So, even a marginal optimistic growth projection for retail and wholesale trade activities makes a huge different to overall growth rate because its share in GDP is the largest and also contributes the most to GDP growth rate. 

Sixth, per capital GDP has increased to US$1034, thanks to a double-digit growth of nominal GDP (14.3%, up from 13.3% in FY2018). The size of the economy is projected to increase to US$30.5 billion. Per capita gross national disposable income (which factors in remittances as well) is projected to be US$1364, up from US$1290 in FY2018. Gross domestic savings (GDP minus final consumption) has increased to 20.5% of GDP, up from about 10% of GDP four years ago. What is happening is that on the expenditure side consumption is lowered but gross investment is increased drastically (by increasing change in stocks). This doesn’t fit well with the supply-side data on high services output but restrained industrial output (especially manufacturing and construction). 

Seventh, the economy can sustain growth of over 6% with an appropriate mix of macroeconomic strategies, financial arrangements, smart project execution, and supportive institutions and policies. Government has an important role to play in providing critical infrastructure, addressing market failures, designing a growth-enhancing tax regime, and implementing business-friendly policies to usher in a meaningful structural transformation. It also needs to enhance both the quantum and quality of public capital spending to over 8 percent of GDP annually. Again, the key going forward would be to increase private investment and to reduce fiscal deficit without jeopardizing quantum and quality of capital spending. 

Eighth, for the first time the CBS released provincial GDP estimate. The share of province 3 is the highest (41.4%), followed by province 5 (13.1%), province 1 (14.6%), province 2 (12.8%), Gandaki (8.3%), Karnali (3.4%), and Sudur Paschim (6.4%). Province 5 grew at the fastest rate (7.4%). The CBS released just growth estimates but not the actual numbers (constant prices) for last year and this year.

Bherai Babai tunnel breakthrough, cash transfer or public investment and effect of home assigned civil servants

Early breakthrough in Bheri Babai tunnel sets a milestone--and a lesson for other lagging national projects

From The Kathmandu Post: The Rs33.18 billion Bheri Babai Diversion Multipurpose Project in Surkhet has crossed a major milestone with the completion of a tunnelled connection, allowing diversion of water from Bheri River to Babai River for irrigation and power generation. Four years after the national pride project was inaugurated by the late Sushil Koirala in April 2015, the Bheri Babai project marked the tunnel breakthrough one year before the original deadline--thanks to a number of factors, including the use of technology, topography and well-coordinated efforts.

In a first, the 12-km tunnel was dug using a tunnel boring machine built and installed by a US-based manufacturer. The civil contractor for the project is China Overseas Engineering Group. Oli described the project as a great example of global partnership in development, saying the achievement was a result of the synergy between a Chinese construction company, American technology and Nepali manpower. With this, the major Rs10.57 billion tunnel component of one of the major strategic projects of the country, which is expected to ease the food crisis in the mid-western region by increasing agricultural yield, has been completed. The second component--hydroelectricity and other structures worth Rs12.10 billion--is expected to begin a few months from now.

The tunnel with a capacity to divert 40 cubic metres of water per second will be used to irrigate 51,000 hectares of land throughout the year in Banke and Bardia districts and generate 46 megawatt electricity. Although the government had invited bids in July 2012, lack of resources and delay in contractor appointment had pushed the project inauguration to April 2015. “Technology definitely played a crucial role, but that aside, the contract was not divided into many portions and contractors were selected accordingly,” said Upadhyay. “More importantly, the project was free from bureaucratic hassles and issues that cropped up at the construction site were resolved then and there.”

>>This multipurpose project, the first-of-its-kind inter-basin water transfer project in Nepal, has the potential to irrigate 51,000 hectares of land year-round in Banke and Bardiya districts when it comes in full operation. This will boost agricultural productivity and income of people in the two districts as well in adjoining districts (positive spillovers). Furthermore, 46 MW hydroelectricity from the project itself will be a boon to Province 5 and Karnali (water comes from Bheri Ganga Municipality of Surkhet District, Karnali Province).

That said, we don't yet know when the projects will come into operation. The procurement to construct a dam to divert water to the tunnel is yet to be done. Similar is the case with construction of power house. It might take another five years. 

---

Cash transfer vs. public services

Khemani et al. write in Future Development blog: In a survey conducted in rural Bihar over November-December 2018, they asked people if they preferred cash transfers if the budget would come from expenses earmarked for other kinds of spending.

Two different trade-offs with targeted cash transfers were presented in the allocation of (a hypothetical) additional budget for the block, a key local administrative unit in India. Respondents were told that since the (hypothetical) additional budget would be limited, the cash would come at the expense of either public health and nutrition services for children in their block or improving the quality of roads.

Of the approximately 3,800 respondents, only 13 percent chose cash if it came at the expense of spending to improve public health and nutrition (preferred by 86 percent of respondents). In contrast, if the cash came at the expense of improving roads throughout the block, the number rises to 35 percent of respondents choosing cash. These percentages are the same when we restrict the sample to respondents with little or no education, or to those who belong to historically disadvantaged caste groups. That is, the poor and less educated are overwhelmingly choosing public health over cash.

Meanwhile, David Evans writes in CGD blog: 

Listen to the voices of citizens. But before throwing the cash transfer baby out with the bathwater, let’s make sure those citizens have clear information about their trade-offs.

---

Should civil servants be allowed to serve in their home areas?

Xu et al. write in VoxDev: that assigning civil servants to their home areas may limit their ability to provide effective public services. Social proximity adversely affects bureaucrat’s performance through political favoritism. 

Our main finding is that officers allocated to their home state perform worse than comparable officers who are allocated to non-home states. On average looking across the entire nation, we find that officers allocated to their home states are deemed to be more corrupt and less able to withstand illegitimate political pressure. The extent to which home allocations worsen performance, however, varies substantially across states. Home-state officers perform worse in states that score higher on corruption as measured by the Transparency International score. Consistent with this subjective evidence we find that, in the more corrupt Indian states, home-allocated officers are more likely to be suspended primarily due to having court cases pending against them. 

We provide corroborating evidence that home officers, especially more senior ones, are more susceptible to capture by the political elite by investigating differential patterns of political interference in the careers of IAS officers based on their proximity to chief ministers, the political heads of Indian states.

Economic transformation in Nepal

Yurendra Basnett, Sameer Khatiwada and I have contributed a chapter on economic transformation in Nepal in a new book titled "The Politics of Change: Reflections on Contemporary Nepal", published by Social Science Baha and The Asia Foundation. 

The Nepali version of the book is titled "समकालीन नेपाल: राजनीति र अन्य आयाम"

Bizmandu ran a three-part series based on the chapter :

• भाग १: "आर्थिक विकासको कार्यान्वयनयोग्य भिजन भएन", बिजमाण्डू, चैत २६, २०७५ 
• भाग २: "स्वदेशी अर्थतन्त्रले अवसर सिर्जना गरेन", बिजमाण्डू, चैत २५, २०७५ 
• भाग ३: "विकास गर्न हामीलाई केले पछि पारेको छ?", बिजमाण्डू, चैत २४, २०७५