Saturday, September 5, 2015

Nepal Macroeconomic Update, Aug 2015 (in Nepali)

Here is the Nepali version of FY2016 growth and inflation outlook from Macroeconomic Update, August 2015, Vol.3, No.2. It includes FY2015 update on real, fiscal, monetary and external sector, and growth and inflation outlook for FY2016. It provides a comprehensive macroeconomic assessment, including fiscal sustainability, after the April 25 earthquake.


sfo{sf/L ;f/f+z (Executive Summary)

!= @)!% clk|n @% sf] &=* DoflUg6\o"8 dfkg ul/Psf] ljgfzsf/L dxfe"sDk / TfTkZrft\ uPsf y'k|} k/fsDkgx? / klxnf]] 5 dlxgfdf cf};teGbf Go"g dg;'gsf] sf/0fn] cfly{s aif{ @)&!÷&@df cfly{s ultljlw ;':t /x] . kl/0ffdtM e"sDk hfg'cl3sf] $=^Ü sf] s"n ufx{:y pTkfbg j[l4b/ k|If]k0faf6 #=)Ü df em/]sf] 5 . cfly{s aif{sf] bzf} dlxgfdf e"sDk uPsf] ePtfklg cf}Bf]lus tyf ;]jfIf]qdf ;a}eGbf a9L k|efj k/\of] . s[lif pkhsf] j[l4b/ !=(Ü df emg]{ cg'dfg ul/Psf] 5 h'g e"sDkcl3 @=^Ü sf] j[l4 x'g] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] lyof] . s'Nf ufx{:y pTkfbgdf s]an !%Ü dfq} lx:;f /x]sf] cf}Bf]lus If]q cg'dflgt @=^Ü sf] j[l4b/df v'lDrof] h'g If]qsf] j[l4b/ e"sDkhfg'k"j{ $=^Ü sf] x'g] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] lyof] . o;}u/L, e"sDkn] k'/\ofPsf] gf]S;fgsf] sf/0fn] d'Vo ;]jfIf]qsf] j[l4b/ @=!Ü ljGb'n] 36g]] cg'dfg ul/Psf] 5 h'g e"sDkcl3 ^=)Ü sf] j[l4b/ /xg] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] lyof] . cfly{s aif{ @)&@÷&# sf] nflu kl/b[Zo ;ts{tfk"j{s cfzfjfbL /x]sf] tyf of] d'Votof e"sDkkZrft\sf] k'glgdf{0f sfo{sf] ult / k|efjsfl/tfdf e/ kg]{5 . sdhf]/ tyf cf};teGbf Go"g dg;'g, k'glg{df{0f kl/of]hgfx?sf] oyfy{ sfof{Gjog 7Ls7Ls} jf b|'t ultdf x'g] ;Defjgf, ljBdfg /fhgLlts cGof]n tyf d'Vo ;]jfIf]qsf lqmofsnfksf] dWod vfnsf] k'g?Tyfgsf] ;DefjgfnfO{ dWogh/ ub}{, s'n u|fx:y pTkfbg j[l4b/ $=%Ü b]lv %=%Ü sf] aLrdf /xg] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] 5 .

@= klxnf] tLgj6} q}dfl;sdf ;':t vr{ x'g' / clGtd q}dfl;sdf e"sDkn] gf]S;fg k'/\ofPsf] sf/0f cfly{s aif{ @)&!÷&@ df ;fj{hlgs vr{ k|ultdf g/fd|f];FUf k|efj k/\of] . ah]6 sfof{Gjogdf x'g] l9nfO{, nfdf] k|lqmof / emGeml6nf] v/Lb k|lqmofsf] sf/0fn] vr{ ug{ ;Sg] Ifdtfdf afwf k'u]sf]n] ubf{ k"FhLut vr{ lautsf aif{x?df eGbf dGbultdf x'g uof] . cfly{s aif{ @)&!÷@)&@df k"FhLut vr{ ug{sf nflu 5'§ofOPsf] /sdsf] ^(=(Ü dfq jf:tljs k"FhLut vr{ ePsf] 5, h'g cfly{s aif{ @)&)÷@)&!df xfl;n ePsf] &*=$Ü eGbf Go"g 5 . o;}u/L rfn" vr{cGtu{t *$=$Ü jf:tljs vr{ ePsf] 5 h'g vr{ cl3Nnf] cfly{s aif{sf] *%=(Ü eGbf yf]/}dfq sd xf] . ;du| vr{df !#=)Ü n] j[l4 ePsf] 5 h;df rfn" vr{ / k"FhLut vr{sf] j[l4 qmdzM !!=)Ü / @@=#Ü /x]sf] / b'Jf} j[l4b/ cfly{s aif{ @)&)÷@)&!sf] eGbf Go"g /x]sf] 5 .

#= s"n /fhZj !#=*Ü n] a[l4 eP klg cfj @)&)÷@)&!sf] @)=%Ü j[l4b/eGbf lgs} Go"g xf] . aflif{s /fhZj ;+sng ? $)%=* ca{ -lhl8lksf] !(=!Ü_df dfq ;Lldt ePsf] 5 . h'g /fhZj ;+sngsf] nIo ? $@@=( ca{ eGbf Go"g xf] . clk|nsf] dxfe"sDkkZrft\ cfly{s ultljlw tyf cfoftdf cfPsf] ;':ttfsf] sf/0fn] of] /fhZj ;+sng 36]sf] xf] . lhl8lkdf /fhZj ;+sngsf] lx:;f pNn]Vo ?kdf a9\g uO{ !^=*Ü k'u]sf] 5 h'g cfj @)^%÷^^ df (=*Ü dfq} /x]sf] lyof] . s/k|zf;gdf ePsf] lg/Gt/ ;'wf/, s/ cfwf/ nfO{ km/flsnf] agfOPsf] tyf cfoftdf ePsf] j[l4 -w]/}h;f] ljk|]if0fsf] cfDbfgLn] wfg]sf]_ n] uPsf] bzsdf /fhZj ;+sngdf pNn]Vo j[l4 ePsf] xf] .

$= ck]Iff ul/PeGbf Go"g /fhZj ;+sng;Fu} lg/fzfhgs vr{ k|ultn] cfa @)&!÷&@ df lhl8lksf] nueu )=@Ü k|ltzt a/fa/Lsf] ljlQo 3f6f -lkm:sn 8]lkml;6_ /x]sf] 5 . oBlk of] cfa @)^(÷@)&)sf] lhl8lksf] )=&Ü / cfa @)&)÷&! sf] )=^Ü a/fa/sf] ;l~rt ljQ x'g' eGbf /fd|f] cj:yf xf] . of] cem}klg lhl8lksf] @=@ k|ltztdf /x]sf] dWosfnLg cf};t ljlQo 3f6f eGbf Go"g 5 . g]kfn h:tf] Go"g cfo ePsf] d"ns tyf hnljB't\ / ;8s h:tf k"jf{wf/ lgdf{0f ug{ 7"nf] k"hLsf] cfjZostf k'/f ug{ dWodvfnsf] ljQ 3f6f df rNg' jf~5gLo 5 t/ To;f] ubf{ ljQ lbuf]kgf -lkm:sn ;:6]glaln6L cyf{t\ ;/sf/n] ug{'kg]{ vr{, /fhZj tyf cGo gLltut s'/fdf gf]S;fg x'g lbg' x'b}g_ . cfa @)^*÷^)( b]lv k|fOd/L ;/\KN;df rln/x]sf] 5 o;sf] cy{ ;fj{hlgs C0fsf] Jofh ltg'{k"j{ ljQ ;Gt'ng ;sf/fTds /x]sf] eGg] xf] . g]kfnsf] ;du| ;fj{hlgs C0f -afx\o tyf ufx{:y_ lg/Gt/ 3l6/x]sf] / pQm C0f cfj @)&!÷@)&@df lhl8lksf] @%=^Ü df em/]sf] 5 . ljQLo lbuf]kgf -lkm:sn ;:6]gflaln6L_ laZn]if0fn] kof{Kt ljQLo cfwf/ /x]sf] / To;n] pTkfbg j[l4 ug]{u/L ;fj{hlgs k"FhL nufgL lj:tf/ ug{ ;lsg] b]vfpFb5 / o:tf] nufgL k'glgdf{0fsf cfof]hgfdf ;d]t ug{ ;lsG5 t/ To;f] ubf{ ;/sf/sf] lkm:sn ;fp08g]z -ljQLo dha'tLdf_ df hf]lvd x'g'x'b}g .

%= d"b|f:kmLlt -aif{sf] cf};t pkef]Qmf d"No_ cfa @)&!÷@)&@df pNn]Vo ?kdf tn em/L &=@Ü df cfOk'u]sf] 5 To;df vfB / u}/vfB j:t'sf] d"No tn emg{ uO{ d'b|fl:kmlt cfa @)^^÷^& otfs} ;a}eGbf tn cfPsf] xf] . cfa @)&!÷@)&@df vfB / u}/vfB j:t'sf] d"Noj[l4b/ qmdzM (=^Ü / %=@Ü df /x\of] h'g cfa @)&)÷@)&!df qmdzM !!=^Ü / ^=*Ü n] j[l4 ePsf] lyof] . cfa @)&!÷@)&@df ;du| d"Noj[l4df vfBj:t'sf] d"Non] %=# Ü ljGb' / u}/vfB j:t'sf] @=& Ü ljGb'sf] of]ubfg /x]sf] 5 . cfpFbf] ;donfO{ x]bf{, cf};teGbf Go"g dg;'gsf] sf/0fn] s[lif pTkfbgdf sdL x'g] / ef/tdf x'g] clnslt pRr d"Nosf] rfk, lgdf{0f ;fdu|L / sfdbf/sf] pRr dfu, rLg;Fusf] d'Vo Jofkl/s gfsf aGb /xg' / ljt/0f g]6js{;lxt cfk"lt{df x'g hfg] cj/f]w, tyf d'n'ssf] ljleGg efudf /fhgLlts aGb x8\tfnn] ubf{ j:t' / ;]jfsf] ;fwf/0f d"No cfa @)&@÷&# df *=% Ü b]lv (=%Ü sf aLrdf /xg] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] 5 . cfa @)&@÷&# df OGwgsf] d"No lgolGqt x'g] pRr ;Defjgf /x]tf klg nfdf] ;do;Dd cfk"lt{df cj/f]w hf/L /x]df d"Noj[l4 s/La !)Ü ;Dd k'Ug ;Sg] ;Defjgf 5 .

^= dlg ;KnfO{ cyf{t\ d'b|f k|bfo -Pd@_ !(=(Ü n] a9]/ g]? #!!=* ca{df k'u]sf] 5 o;f] x'g'sf] sf/0fdf v'b a}blzs ;DklQ tyf v'b ufx{:y ;DklQdf pNn]Vo j[l4 x'g' xf] . a}+s tyf ljQLo ;+:yfn] kl/rfng u/]sf] lgIf]k @)=!Ü n] a9]sf] 5 h'g ut cfadf pQm lgIf]k !*=$Ü j9]sf] lyof] . cfa @)&!÷@)&@df ;+lrt lgIf]k kl/rfng lhl8lksf] &(=%Ü df k'u]sf] 5 h'g ut cfadf &@=%Ü dfq lyof] . a}+s tyf ljQLo ;+:yfsf] s"n C0f -C0f / k]ZsL_ !&=%Ü -g]? @@(=# ca{_ n] j[l4 ePsf] 5 h'g cfa @)&)÷@)&!df !$=$Ü j[l4 eO -g]? !^%=% ca{_ df k'u]sf] lyof] . ;du|df, s'Nf C0f k|jfxsf] ;a}eGbf a9L @!=*Ü yf]s tyf v'b|f ljqm]tfdf uPsf] 5 To;kl5 !*=*Ü pBf]udf, !!=@Ü lgdf{0fdf, &=(Ü ;]jfd"Nfs If]qdf C0fk|jfx ePsf] 5 . cfa @)&!÷@)&@df a}+s tyf ljQLo ;+:yfsf] s'Nf C0f lhl8lksf] &@=^Ü df k'u]sf] 5 h'g ut cfadf ^&=^Ü df /x]sf] lyof] . s]Gb|Lo a}+sn] aif}{el/ ljleGg OG:6«'d]G6 h:t} l/e;{ l/kf] tyf laqmL af]nsaf]ndfkm{t\ clws t/ntf k|zf]rg u/]sf] 5 . aif}{el/ Jofhb/df ptf/r9fa cfO/xFbf cNksfnLg t/ntf Joj:yfkgsf pkfox?sf] k6s k6s k|of]u x'g'n] ljBdfg t/ntf Joj:yfkg /0fgLlt c:yfoL pkfo ePsf] / bL3{sfnLg ;dfwfg ug{ nufgL jftfj/0fdf g} ;'wf/ cfpg'kg]{ s'/f Olu+t ub{5 . aif}}{el/ clws t/ntf sfod /x]sf]n] cNksfnLg Jofhb/ !=)Ü eGbf klg Go"g x'g uPsf] 5, oBlk @)!%sf] km]a'|c/Lkl5 pQm Aofhb/ cl3Nnf] cfasf] ToxL ;doeGbf pRr lyof] . afl0fHo a}+sx?n] cfjZos l;Pcf/ -Soflk6n Pl8Sj];L /]l;of]_ / v'b t/ntf ;lhn};Fu k'/f u/]sf 5g\ . afl0fHo a}+ssf] l;Pcf/ !!=^(Ü df /x\of] h'g Go"gtd !)Ü l;Pcf/ / !Ü akm/ cfjZostfeGbf w]/} xf] .

&= cfa @)&)÷@)&!df zf]wgfGt/ art cd]l/sL 8n/ !=% ca{ -lhl8lksf] ^=*Ü_ k'u]sf]n] d'n's'sf] afx\o If]q ;an ePsf] lyof] . lhl8lksf] #!=@Ü df k'u]sf] d'n'ssf] 7"nf] Jofkf/ 3f6f a}b]lzs /f]huf/df uPsf sfdbf/af6 cfPsf] ljk|]if0fn]* ]cf+lzs ?kdf k|lt;Gt'ng u/]sf] 5 h'g ljk]|if0f lhl8lksf] @(=!Ü df k'u]sf] 5 / lhl8lksf] $=^Ü /x]sf] lgof{tn] ubf{ rfn" vftfdf cd]l/sL 8n/ !=! ca{ -lhl8lksf] %=!Ü_ art /x]sf] 5 . of] art cl3Nnf] cfa @)&)÷@)&! df lhl8lksf] $=^Ü /x]sf] lyof] . s'n ljb]zL ljlgdo ;l~rlt cfa @)&)÷@)&! sf] cd]l/sL 8n/ ^=* ca{af6 a9]/ cfa @)&!÷@)&@df cd]l/sL 8n/ *=# ca{df k'u]sf] 5 h'g !!=@ dlxgfsf] nflu j:t' / ;]jf cfoft ug{ k'Ug] /x]sf] 5 . ;du|df g]kfNfL ?k}ofF @)!! h'nfO{ !% b]lv @)!@ h'nfO{ !% aLrdf !(=(Ü n] cjd"Nog eof] / @)!@ h'nfO{ !% b]lv @)!# sf] h'nfO{ !% aLrdf ^=&Ü n] cjd"Nog ePsf] lyof] . o;}u/L @)!# sf] h'nfO{ !% b]lv @)!$ sf] h'nfO{ !%sf] cjlwdf )=(Ü n] x|f; ePsf] g]kfnL ?k}ofFdf @)!$ sf] h'nfO{ !% b]lv @)!% sf] h'nfO{df km]l/ %=$Ü n] cjd"Nog ePsf] 5 .

*= o; Dofqmf]Osf]gf]lds cKf8]6n] zL3| k'g:yf{kgfsf nflu e"sDkf]Q/ k'glgdf{0f sfo{sf] dxTj / o;nfO{ s;/L cufl8 a9fpg ;lsG5 eGg]jf/] s]lGb|t eO a0f{g u/]sf] 5 . e"sDkn] wghgsf] 7"nf] Iflt u/]sf] 5 . o;n] cfly{s j[l4b/df x|f; NofPsf] 5, s/La bz nfv dflg;x? ul/aLsf] /]vfd'lGt/ ws]lnPsf 5g\ . ;x;|fAbL ljsf; nIosf s]xL xfl;n ug'{kg]{ k|ultx?df ;':ttf cfPsf] 5 / ;fy} nufgLstf{ / pkef]Qmfsf] dgf]an sdhf]/ ePsf] 5 . cGt/fli6{«o k'glgdf{0f ;Dd]ngdf ;fj{hlgs If]qsf] k'glgdf{0fsf nflu ck]Iff ul/Psf] eGbf a9L g} k|ltj4tf Kf|fKt ePsf] 5 . xfn, zL3| kl/of]hgf tof/ ug]{ / nfu" ug{] sfdsf nflu /fli6«o k'glgdf{0f k|flws/0f -Pgcf/P_ tyf ;DalGwt dGqfnosf] Ifdtfn] g} k'glgdf{0fsf] ;Defjgf / ultdf cfwf/ to ub{5 / To;n] klxn]eGbf /fd|f], b|'t k'g:yf{kgf ug{ d2t ub{5 . k|flws/0fnfO{ s'g} l9nf gu/Lsg ;+rfngdf NofOg'kb{5 / o;n] bL3{sfnLg cfly{s ljsf;sf] b[li6sf]0f;Fu d]n vfg] u/L kfFraif]{ k'glgdf{0f /0fgLlt tof/ ug'{kb{5 .

(= k'glgdf{0fnfO{ ultdfg\ agfpgsf nflu of]Uo hgzlQmsf] lgo'lQm cfjZos 5 . o;}u/L ul/g'kg]{ sfo{df ;doa4 nufgL tflnsf;lxtsf] of]hgf agfpg], k|f]h]S6x? tof/ u/L tof/L cj:yfdf /fVg], l8hfOg, cg'udg tyf d"Nof+sg sfdsf] cfp6;f]l;{ª\ ug]{, k|:tfljt sfo{df /fhgLlts ;dembf/L, k|f]h]S6 ;fOsndf o'jf, ljz]if ;+:yf tyf gful/s ;dfhsf] kl/rfng cflb sfdx? kb{5g\ . oL sfo{x?n] gLlhIf]qsf] yk nufgL NofpF5 clgdfq pRr, lbuf] tyf ;dfj]zL cfly{s j[l4tkm{ cufl8 a9\g] jftfj/0f aGb5 . ;du|df, k'g:yf{kgf tyf k'glgdf{0fn] d"Votof pTkfbg a9fpg] Pjd\ ;fj{hlgs k"FhL nufgL j[l4 ug]{ nIo /fVg'kb{5 . pQm ;fj{hlgs k"FhLut nufgL ;+/rfgfut kl/jt{g Nofpgsf nflu dxTjk"0f{ 5 / To;f] ePdf dfq pRr d"No -xfO Eofn" P8]8_ / pRr pTkfbg x'g] If]qx? dWosfnLg Go"g Df"No -nf] Eofn' P8]8_ ePsf tyf Go"g pTKffbg ePsf If]qx?eGbf a9L ;zQm x'g]5g\ .

v= cfa @)!^ a[l4b/ cfp6n's (FY2016 Growth Outlook)

!= cfly{s aif{ @)!^sf] nflu cfp6n's ;ts{tfk"j{s cfzfjfbL /x]sf] tyf of] d'Votof e"sDkkZrft\sf] k'glgdf{0f sfo{sf] ult / k|efjsfl/tfdf lge{/ /xg]5 . sdhf]/ tyf cf};teGbf Go"g dg;'gn] s[lifdf afnL nufpg] ;dodf k|efj kfl/;s]]sf] 5, vf;u/L k"jf{~rn / DfWodf~rn ljsf; If]qdf wfg /f]kfO{df To:tf] k|efj kl/;s]sf] xf] . e"sDkkl5sf klx/f]n] ubf{ u'd]sf] v]tLof]Uo hldgsf] sf/0fn] klg s[lif pkhsf] pTkfbg 36\g ;S5 . ;du|df uPsf] aif{sf] eGbf dg;'g /fd|f] /xg] ck]Iff ul/Psf] ePtf klg aiff{ bL3{sfnLg cf};teGbf Go"g /xg] / To;sf] sf/0fdf k|zfGt dxf;fu/df[*]* sdhf]/ Pnlggf] hf/L /xg' xf] . z'?d} dg;'g b'OxKtf l9nfu/L lqmofzLn ePsf] lyof] . ;fdfGotof dg;'g h'gsf] !) ut] k"jf{~rnaf6 k|j]z ub{5 clg Ps;ftfdf k'/} b]zel/ km}lnG5 . nueu s'n aiff{sf] *) k|ltzt h'gb]lv ;]K6]Da/;Ddd} x'g] ub{5 . cf}Bf]lus tyf ;]jfIf]qn] dWod b]lv dha"t pknlAw xfl;n ug]{5g\ t/ To:tf] pknlAw /fhgLlts ljsf;qmd, k'glgdf{0fsf] k|of;, e"sDksf] k|efj / j:t' ahf/sf] k'g:yf{kgf / ljk|]if0f cfk|jfxdf e/ kb{5 . cfa @)!^ df ;a}h;f] ljjfbf:kb laifox? ;N6fP/ hf/L ul/g] gofF ;+ljwfgn] nufgLstf{sf] dgf]an a9fpg ;S5 . ;fy}, k'g:yf{kgfsf] ;Defjgf / sfdsf] ultn] vfgL, pTkfbg / lgdf{0f ultljlwdf k|efj kfg]{ / cf}Bf]lus If]qsf] j[l4df /fd|f] glthf b]vfpg]5 .

lrq !M j[l4b/df If]qut of]ubfg -k|ltzt ljGb'_

;|f]tM s]Gb|Lo tYof+s ljefuÙ NRM Staff estimates 

@= cfa @)!^ sf] ah]6 ;dod} / ljj]sk"0f{ sfof{Gjog ug]{ s'/f k'g:yf{kgfsf] s]Gb|ljGb'df /x]sf]] 5 . a}b]lzs /f]huf/Ldf hfg] b/, To;cg'?k /]ld6]G; cfk|jfx, xf]6]n, /]i6'/]G6, oftfoft, ;~rf/, lzIff tyf l/on :6]6 / ef8f;]jf cflb e"sDkk"j{s} cj:yfdf Nofpg] / ;]jf ;'Rff? ug]{ s'/fn] ;]jfIf]qsf] j[l4df k|efj kfb{5 .

#= oL ;Defjgfx?nfO{ dgg ub}{ of] dfOqmf]Osf]gf]lds cK8]6n] cfa @)!^sf] lhl8lk j[l4b/ -cfwf/e"t dNodf_ b'O{ cj:yfdf k|If]k0f ul/Psf] 5 -lrq !_ . klxnf] cj:yfdf yf]/} ePklg /fd|f] dg;'g x'g], /fli6«o k'glgdf{0f k|flws/0fdfkm{t\ ul/g] k'glgdf{0f kl/of]hgfx?sf] oyfy{ sfof{Gjog 7Ls} 9+un] ult lng], /fhgLlt kl/b[io lj:tf/} ;fdfGoLs/0f x'b} hfg], ljutsf k"FhLut vr{sf sfo{qmd lg/Gt/ rNg], ko{6g ultljlwdf klg dWod txsf] k'jf{j:yfdf cfpg] / ;]jfIf]qsf] j[l4df clnslt ;'wf/ x'g] cj:yfdf lhl8lk $=%Ü n] j[l4 x'g] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] 5 . clnslt /fd|f] aiff{ -uPsf kfFr aif{sf] cf};t_ / wfg v]tL x'g] If]qdf kof{Kt wfg /f]kfO{ x'g], /fli6«o k'glgdf{0f k|flws/0faf6 x'g] vr{df j[l4 Pjd\ ;DalGwt dGqfnosf] k"FhLut vr{df pNn]Vo ;'wf/n] ubf{ pTkfbg / lgdf{0f ultljlwdf pNn]Vo k|ult, /fhgLlts kl/b[iodf ;dfGoLs/0f / ;]jfIf]q -dha't /]ld6]G;sf] cfk|jfx / zL3| ko{6g ;]jfsf] k'g:yf{kgf cflb lqmofsnfk_ dha't x'g] bf]>f] cj:yfdf eg] lhl8lk %=%Ü n] j[l4 x'g] cg'dfg ul/Psf] 5 . k|lts"n /fhgLlts cj:yf tyf ;':t k"FhLut ah]6 sfof{Gjogh:tf b'O gsf/fTds sf/0fn] j[l4b/ k|If]k0feGbf klg tn hfg;Sg] ;Defjgf klg 5 .

$= of] k|If]k0f ;/sf/n] cfa @)&@÷&# sf nflu ah]6df 3f]if0ff u/]sf] ^Ü sf] lhl8lk j[l4 eGbf Go"g xf] . ^Ü sf] j[l4b/ xfl;n ug{, cfly{s aif{sf] klxnf] ^ dlxgfdf cf};teGbf sd dfq dg;'gsf] aiff{ ePsf] cj:yfdf klg s[lif pTkfbg @=%Ü n] a[l4 x'g'kb{5 / u}/s[lif pTkfbg sDtLdf &=&Ü n] j[l4 x'g' cfjZos x'G5 of] If]qsf] j[l4b/ ut cfjdf $=!Ü dfq /x]sf] lyof] . o;}u/L, s[lifsf] pTkfbg uPsf] kfFr aif{sf] cf};t j[l4b/ a/fa/ x'g] eg]/ dfGg] tyf ;]jfIf]qsf] j[l4b/ ^Ü -h'g uPsf kfFr aif{sf] cf};teGbf a9L xf]_ df k'Ug] xf] eg] klg lhl8lkdf ^ k|ltzt j[l4b/ xfl;n ug{ cf}Bf]lus If]qsf] j[l4b/ sDtLdf !#=^Ü cfjZos x'G5 . pTkfbg tyf cfk"lt{df hf/L Jojwfgsf] sf/0f tyf b]zsf] ljleGg :yfgdf hf/L /fhgLlts czflGtn] cem}klg cf}Bf]lus pTkfbg e"sDk k"j{sf] cj:yfdf k"0f{tof gcfO;s]sf]n] of] nIo r'gf}tLk"0f{ 5 . ;fy} Pgcf/P cem} klg k"0f{ sfof{Gjogdf cfO;s]sf] 5}g / o;nfO{ k'glgdf{0fsf kl/of]hgf Joj:yfkg ug{ cem} s]xL dlxgf nfUg ;S5 / k'glgdf{0f ;DaGwL kl/of]hgffnfO{ egL ;DalGwt dGqfnonfO{ 5'§\ofOPsf] !&) ldlnog cd]l/sL8n/ nufgL ug]{ of]hgf tyf kl/of]hgfsf] /0fgLlt cfkm} hfu?s eP/ tof/ kf/]sf] klg 5}g .

u= cfa @)&@÷&# d'b|fl:kmlt cfp6n's (FY2016 Inflation Outlook)

!= cf};teGbf Go"g dg;'gsf] sf/0fn] x'g] s[lif pTkfbgdf sdL / ef/tdf x'g] clnslt d"Noj[l4sf] rfk, lgdf{0f ;fdu|L / sfdbf/sf] pRr dfu, lkcf/;L;Fusf] d'Vo Jofkfl/s gfsf aGb /xg' / ljt/0f g]6js{;lxt cfk"lt{df x'g hfg] cj/f]w, tyf d'n'ssf] ljleGg efudf /fhgLlts aGb x8\tfnn] ubf{ j:t' / ;]jfsf] ;fwf/0f d"No cfa @)&@÷&# df a9\g] b]lvG5 -lrq @_ . oLg} ljifox?sf] ufDeLo{tfsf] cfwf/df b'O{ cj:yfdf d'b|fl:kmltsf] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] 5 . klxnf] cj:yfdf lg/Gt/ OGwgsf] d"No 3l6/x]sf] a]nfdf u}/vfBsf] d"No tn} /xg] / ef/tsf] d"No rfk l:y/ /xg] tyf vfBj:t'sf] d"Noj[l4 b'O{ c+sdf /xg] cg'dfg ul/Psf] / To;f] ePdf ;du| d"Noj[l4 b/ *=%Ü df /xg] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] 5 .

lrq @M d'b|fl:kmlt -k|ltzt ljGb'_ df of]ubfg

;|f]tM g]kfn /fi6« a}+sÙ NRM Staff estimates

@= bf]>f] cj:yfdf, ef/tdf x'g] d"Nodf dWod vfnsf] rfk tyf Jofkf/ / ljt/0f g]6js{df d'Vo Jofkf/ x'g] gfsfdf cj/f]w x'g' tyf /fhgLlts cfGbf]ngn] ubf{ x'g] aGb x8\tfnn] cfk"lt{df pRr cj/f]wn] wfg ds} ux'F clg t/sf/L / kmnkm"n h:tf vfB kbfy{sf] Df"No klxnf] cj:yfdf eGbf klg dfly hfg] b]lvG5 . o;}u/L u}/vfB j:t' vf; u/L sk8f / km'6j]o/, ;hfj6 tyf 3/df k|of]u x'g] ljleGg pks/0fsf] klg d"No a9\g]5 . h;n] ubf{ cfa @)&@÷&# df d"Noj[l4 s/La (=%Ü ;Dd x'g]5 . cfa @)&@÷&# df OGwgsf] d"No lgolGqt g} /xg] ePtfklg cfk"lt{df x'g] cj/f]w nfdf] ;do;Dd hf/L /x]df d"Noj[l4 To;eGbf klg dfly s/La !)Ü ;Dd klg k'Ug] ;Defjgf /xG5 . cd]l/sL 8n/sf] t'ngfdf g]kfnL ?k}ofFsf] lg/Gt/ cjd"Nogn] d"Noj[l4df yk rfk kg{ ;Sg] ;Defjgf klg 5 .


[*] v'b j:t', ;]jf tyf cfDbfgLsf] ;G'tng lhl8lksf] @*=#Ü n] gsf/fTds /x]sf] / h;n] ubf{ lhl8lksf] ##=$Ü a/fa/ v'b 6«fG:km/ ;Gt'ng x'g cfpF5 / kl/0ffdtM rfn" vftfdf lhl8lksf] %=!Ü a/fa/ art /xG5 .

[**] OlG8og d]l6l/of]nlhsn l8kf6{d]G6n] cui6 #, @)!% df u/]sf] cfsngsf cg';f/ nfdf] cjlwsf] cf};tdf dg;'gsf] aiff{ *$ k|ltzt -cui6 b]lv ;]K6]Da/;Dd_, () k|ltzt -cui6_ , ** k|ltzt -h'gb]lv ;]K6]Da/_ dfq x'g] k|If]k0f u/sf] 5 . nfdf] cjlw eGgfn] %) aif{sf] cf};t eGg] a'emfpFb5 .

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