According to the latest Global Economic Prospects 2011,in 2012, Nepal is expected to have a nominal GDP of US$ 21.6 billion (2005 current prices), population of 31 million, GDP per capita of US$ 697.3, and real per capita GDP growth of 2.1%. Here is an earlier blog post about GEP 2011.
Real GDP growth is expected to be 3.7% and 4% in 2011 and 2012. Exports growth will initially decline to 5.6% and then rise to 7.3% in 2012. Meanwhile, imports growth will decline to 6.3% and then increase to 6.9% in 2012.
Private consumption is expected to contribute 3.3% to GDP growth in 2012, but government consumption is expected to contribute just 0.6%. Fixed investment and net exports are expected to contribute 1.2% of GDP growth and 1.3% of GDP growth in 2012.
As a share of GDP, private consumption is expected to be 75.3% and 74.4% in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Similarly, government consumption as a share of GDP is expected to be 11.1% in 2012; fixed investment 20.6%; change in stocks 7.2%; and total investment 27.9%.
Both exports and imports (as a share of GDP) are expected to decline in 2012. Exports are expected to be 11% of GDP and 9.9% of GDP in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The figures for imports for the same period are 26.1% and 23.7%. It means that trade deficit is expected to increase further. Exchange rate is expected to appreciate, probably due to weak dollar.
| Nepali Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2008-2012 | |||||
| Indicator | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| Real Expenditure Growth | |||||
| GDP at market prices | 5.3 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4 |
| Private consumption | 4.9 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 4 | 4.1 |
| Government consumption | 6.8 | 19.3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 6 |
| Fixed investment | 6 | 5.9 | 4 | 5 | 5.5 |
| Exports, GNFS | -3.4 | 38.4 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 7.3 |
| Imports, GNFS | 7.5 | 20.2 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.9 |
| Contribution to GDP Growth | |||||
| Private consumption | 3.9 | 3.6 | 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Government consumption | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Fixed investment | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Net exports | -0.5 | 4.8 | 1 | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Price Deflators | |||||
| GDP at market prices | -6.7 | 8.2 | 18.7 | 25.1 | 3.3 |
| Private consumption | -8.9 | 11.3 | 14.5 | 22.2 | 2 |
| Exports, GNFS | -5.8 | 6.4 | -5 | 4 | -9.4 |
| Imports, GNFS | -4.6 | 7.9 | -5.4 | 3.5 | -8.9 |
| Share of GDP | |||||
| Private consumption | 77.1 | 79.2 | 76.8 | 75.3 | 74.4 |
| Government consumption | 10 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11 | 11.1 |
| Fixed investment | 21.1 | 21.2 | 20.8 | 20.6 | 20.6 |
| Change in stocks | 12.1 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 7.2 |
| Total investment | 33.2 | 29.6 | 28.7 | 28 | 27.9 |
| Exports, GNFS | 12.1 | 15.7 | 12.9 | 11 | 9.9 |
| Imports, GNFS | 32.7 | 37.4 | 30.8 | 26.1 | 23.7 |
| Overall | |||||
| Nominal GDP (USD billions) | 11.2 | 12.6 | 15.5 | 20.1 | 21.6 |
| Population (millions) | 28.8 | 29.3 | 29.9 | 30.4 | 31 |
| GDP per capita, current USD | 388.1 | 431.1 | 518.9 | 661.1 | 697.3 |
| Real per capita GDP growth | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 2.1 |
| USD Fx rate | 73.3 | 76 | 73.6 | 65 | 67.6 |
Source: Global Economic Prospects 2011; 2011 and 2012 are forecasts
