Friday, January 14, 2011

Nepal’s growth prospects in 2012

According to the latest Global Economic Prospects 2011,in 2012, Nepal is expected to have a nominal GDP of US$ 21.6 billion (2005 current prices), population of 31 million, GDP per capita of US$ 697.3, and real per capita GDP growth of 2.1%. Here is an earlier blog post about GEP 2011.

Real GDP growth is expected to be 3.7% and 4% in 2011 and 2012. Exports growth will initially decline to 5.6% and then rise to 7.3% in 2012. Meanwhile, imports growth will decline to 6.3% and then increase to 6.9% in 2012.

Private consumption is expected to contribute 3.3% to GDP growth in 2012, but government consumption is expected to contribute just 0.6%. Fixed investment and net exports are expected to contribute 1.2% of GDP growth and 1.3% of GDP growth in 2012.

As a share of GDP, private consumption is expected to be 75.3% and 74.4% in 2011 and 2012, respectively. Similarly, government consumption as a share of GDP is expected to be 11.1% in 2012; fixed investment 20.6%; change in stocks 7.2%; and total investment 27.9%.

Both exports and imports (as a share of GDP) are expected to decline in 2012. Exports are expected to be 11% of GDP and 9.9% of GDP in 2011 and 2012, respectively. The figures for imports for the same period are 26.1% and 23.7%. It means that trade deficit is expected to increase further. Exchange rate is expected to appreciate, probably due to weak dollar.

Nepali Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2008-2012
Indicator 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Real Expenditure Growth
GDP at market prices 5.3 4.7 3.3 3.7 4
Private consumption 4.9 4.5 3.8 4 4.1
Government consumption 6.8 19.3 5.5 5.8 6
Fixed investment 6 5.9 4 5 5.5
Exports, GNFS -3.4 38.4 6.4 5.6 7.3
Imports, GNFS 7.5 20.2 6.8 6.3 6.9
Contribution to GDP Growth
Private consumption 3.9 3.6 3 3.2 3.3
Government consumption 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
Fixed investment 1.3 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.2
Net exports -0.5 4.8 1 0.9 1.3
Price Deflators
GDP at market prices -6.7 8.2 18.7 25.1 3.3
Private consumption -8.9 11.3 14.5 22.2 2
Exports, GNFS -5.8 6.4 -5 4 -9.4
Imports, GNFS -4.6 7.9 -5.4 3.5 -8.9
Share of GDP
Private consumption 77.1 79.2 76.8 75.3 74.4
Government consumption 10 11.1 11.1 11 11.1
Fixed investment 21.1 21.2 20.8 20.6 20.6
Change in stocks 12.1 8.4 7.9 7.4 7.2
Total investment 33.2 29.6 28.7 28 27.9
Exports, GNFS 12.1 15.7 12.9 11 9.9
Imports, GNFS 32.7 37.4 30.8 26.1 23.7
Overall
Nominal GDP (USD billions) 11.2 12.6 15.5 20.1 21.6
Population (millions) 28.8 29.3 29.9 30.4 31
GDP per capita, current USD 388.1 431.1 518.9 661.1 697.3
Real per capita GDP growth 3.3 2.7 1.4 1.8 2.1
USD Fx rate 73.3 76 73.6 65 67.6

Source: Global Economic Prospects 2011; 2011 and 2012 are forecasts

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