As a percentage of GDP, gross investment is expected to increase to 38.2 percent as compared to 31.9 percent in the last fiscal year. Meanwhile, gross national savings is expected to decline to 9.4 percent from 9.7 percent of GDP in the same timeframe. The gap between gross domestic savings and gross investment, as a percentage of GDP, is expected to be negative 28.8 percent. It is widening by about six percentage points from last year’s figure. This essentially means that we are consuming more and have little money to fund projects and trigger capital accumulation.
The net export of goods and services is estimated to expand by almost 10 percentage points to a negative 28.4 percent of GDP. Exports are estimated to decrease to 9.2 percent of GDP from 12.4 percent last year. Meanwhile, imports are estimated to increase to 38.1 percent of GDP from 34.6 percent last year. Hence, trade deficit is expected to widen by 41 percent. The growth of remittances income is expected to slow down to 7 percent from 47 percent last fiscal year. The contribution of remittances to GDP is expected to stand at 19 percent, compared to 21.2 percent last fiscal year. This is leading to current account deficit of Rs 27.60 billion, which is an estimated negative 2.3 percent of GDP. Note that the current account balance was Rs 41.44 billion surplus last year. Overall, the Balance of Payments (BoP) deficit is projected to be Rs 19.57 billion.