Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Infographics of the evolution of Nepal’s export destination

Here is a series of infographics that shows the evolution of Nepal’s export destination. The data is sourced from WB data visualizer. It didn’t have such info for gross exports after 2003.

Top 10 export destination in 1990:

  • United States (US$ 60.73 million)
  • Germany (US$ 44.66 million)
  • India (US$ 21.87 million)
  • Switzerland (US$ 11.77 million)
  • United Kingdom (US$ 7.80 million)
  • China
  • Iraq
  • Italy
  • Bangladesh
  • Japan

Top 10 export destination in 1995:

  • Germany (US$ 131.24 million)
  • United States (US$ 103.03 million)
  • India (US$ 67.51 million)
  • Switzerland (US$ 9.30 million)
  • Italy (US$ 7.18 million)
  • United Kingdom
  • China
  • Austria
  • Iraq
  • Canada

Top export destination in 1998:

It was in 1998 when India became the top export destination of Nepal, thanks to the trade and transit treaty of 1996 (which eliminated value addition requirement for Nepalese exports to India. This provision was replaced with 30% VA in 2000 and Nepalese exports got a hit).

  • India (US$ 136.43 million)
  • United States (US$ 107.56 million)
  • Germany (US$ 103.14 million)
  • Bangladesh (US$ 9 million)
  • France (US$ 7.36 million)
  • Italy
  • Austria
  • United Kingdom
  • Sri Lanka
  • Iraq

Top 10 export destination in 2000:

  • India (US$ 317.79 million)
  • United States (US$ 192.16 million)
  • Germany (US$ 105.52 million)
  • United Kingdom (US$ 16.74 million)
  • Belgium (US$ 11.40 million)
  • France
  • Japan
  • Hong Kong, China
  • Switzerland
  • Spain

Top 10 export destination in 2003:

  • India (US$ 341.79 million)
  • United States (US$ 189.73 million)
  • China (US$ 22.43 million)
  • Germany (US$ 22.11 million)
  • United Kingdom (US$ 13.60 million)
  • Bangladesh
  • France
  • Japan
  • Italy
  • Portugal

Fast forward to 2011 (fiscal year 2010/11), the top exports destination were (total exports amounted to Rs 64.56 billion; data is sourced from TEPC trade data):

  • India (Rs 42.87 billion)
  • United States (Rs 4.39 billion)
  • Bangladesh (Rs 3.47 billion)
  • Germany (Rs 2.768 billion)
  • U.K (Rs 1.389 billion)
  • France
  • Turkey
  • Canada
  • Italy
  • China P.R

Overall, the number of countries Nepal sends goods to has increased but an increasing amount of volume (and revenue) is being concentrated to the Indian market. The phasing out of quotas and slashing of tariff rates in the European markets and the US have contributed to declining share of exports to these countries. At the end, Nepalese products could not compete with exports of similar nature from other countries. Here is a blog post on Nepal’s problems with exports.

Can aid tying work when there is pervasive corruption?

It seems like it does. Knack and Smets argue that aid tying can be an efficient response by donors when losses from corruption may rival or exceed losses from tying aid. It might be the reason why technocrats prefer binding conditionality, which politicians cannot breach to harness their vested interests, against loans or grants.


This study tests two opposing hypotheses about the impact of aid fragmentation on the practice of aid tying. In one, when a small number of donors dominate the aid market in a country, they may exploit their monopoly power by tying more aid to purchases from contractors based in their own countries. Alternatively, when donors have a larger share of the aid market, they may have stronger incentives to maximize the development impact of their aid by tying less of it. Empirical tests strongly and consistently support the latter hypothesis. The key finding---that higher donor aid shares are associated with less aid tying---is robust to recipient controls, donor fixed effects and instrumental variables estimation. When recipient countries are grouped by their scores on corruption perception indexes, higher shares of aid are significantly related to lower aid tying only in the less-corrupt sub-sample. This finding is consistent with the argument that aid tying can be an efficient response by donors when losses from corruption may rival or exceed losses from tying aid. When aid tying is more costly, as proxied by donor country size and income, it is less prevalent. Aid tying is lower in the Least Developed Countries, consistent with the OECD Development Assistance Committee's recommendation to its members.


Monday, January 16, 2012

Government sponsored think tanks in Nepal

PM Baburam Bhattarai feels that the country needs think tanks to give inputs to the government on matters related to foreign affairs and economic development. He is thinking of establishing Institute of Strategic and Foreign Affairs Studies and Institute of the Economic and Development Studies to be run with government grant.

A very positive initiative. The country needs a civilized clash of ideas and ideals with sounds analysis and policy research to distill the most apt economic policies and implications of proposed policies. The proposed think tanks should be given enough seed money to start independent policy analysis.

For too long, advocacy and debate on economic policies have been one-sided and project based (often guided by donor and private interests). The proposed think tanks should be run independently, without political, government and donor interference. The donors should not be asked to foot the bill for its establishment. Else, it will be no different than the several government sponsored media and policy analysis institutions. With regards to foreign policy, there already exists one (something like the Institute of Foreign Affairs).

It should have an independent board, which will hire staff and devise a plan to make the institutions self-sustaining in few years time. It will save the institutions from unnecessary political interference. The primary purpose should be to generate debate on new ideas and their implications. The government can get inputs from them in a strictly professional way. We already have National Planning Commission and the PM’s economic advisory council to deal with giving advise to the government on economic policies. The think tanks should be allowed to weigh in on those policies, facilitate informed debate and generate both alternative and supportive ideas.

A good initiative. It should be done in the right way.

Friday, January 13, 2012

Recommendations of Nepal’s PM’s Economic Advisory Council

Main priorities as suggested by the PM’s Economic Advisory Council are as follow:

  • Tourism
  • Real estate outside Kathmandu
  • Agriculture
  • Infrastructure
  • Energy
  • Scientific and technical research

A total of 18 big projects under these sectors have been recommended by the council with targets of a double-digit growth rate and generation of 200,000 direct and indirect jobs. The private sector has been given high priority to launch the projects. Meanwhile, it has recommended the government to give tax holidays to private companies and encourage them invest in infrastructure.

Some of the recommendations:

  • Encourage private sector (those wholly owned by Nepalese or having investment of more than 49 percent in airline company) to bring in new wide body aircrafts (at least 4 of them). The council has estimated that it will not require additional energy, increase foreign reserves by Rs 6 billion annually, bring in additional 240,000 visitors, and generate Rs 12 billion annual revenue. Direct and indirect employment gains will be over 25,000 yearly.
  • Establish 100 room five start hotels in Bhaktapur, Janakpur and Lumbini. Encourage establishment of three start hotels in places other than Kathmandu, Lalitpur, Bhaktapur, and Pokhara.
  • Construction of cable cars and other tourism infrastructure.
  • Encourage real estate and housing spending in major cities outside of Kathmandu and Lalitpur.
  • Government, community and cooperatives to invest in agriculture and apple farming. Give training to farmers and encourage banks to give loans to agriculture sector.
  • Construct East West Highway and associated roads, Kathmandu Nijgadh fast track, international airport in Nijgadh, and regional airport in Pokhara.
  • Expedite construction of hydro projects with domestic investment. Give priority to projects that can generate electricity in the next two years.

A good list of projects and priority sectors. I am waiting for the full document to be available on the PMO’s website. Any big project that can be completed on time and that can have a positive impact on economic activities and employment generation should be promoted right now. But, we have to deal in a measured way so that the limited resources are used to tackle the most binding constraints in short term as well as long term.

I would like to see the sectors, projects, and incentives recommended by the council to be in line with the priorities to be set by Investment Board, and those outlined in Industrial Policy 2010 and Trade Policy 2009 (also Nepal Trade Integration Strategy 2010 and Three Year Interim Plan 2010/11-2012/13). Why so? Because it will create a consolidated effort to promote similar industries and offer coherent incentives by all government agencies. For too long projects are not implemented because of incompatible priorities and incentives offered by different government agencies to same group of sectors or investors.

Also, let us be very targeted in prioritizing and sanctioning new projects. For instance, let us first focus on constructing an international airport in Pokhara, where land is already acquired and soil testing is being done by the Chinese government. If tourism promotion is the most viable option right now given our infrastructure and supply constraints, then let us try to do things that will generate biggest bang for a buck. We already have a regional airport in Pokhara that is handling regional traffic flows pretty well.

The private sector does not have and cannot generate the required amount of money for investing in big projects that takes years to yield returns. The government has to foot most of the bill (may be provide subsidized credit to them instead of wasting it on NOC and NEA).

Real estate prices in major cities outside of the Valley is already too high. Further encouraging real estate and housing spending there is not a sensible step (apart from pacifying the disgruntled political activists who were reaping easy money from escalating real estate prices). It will be yet another episode of unproductive investment financed by remittances and facilitated by easy policies of the government. It is not going to work except for increasing revenue as a result of more land transaction and the usage of the excess liquidity in the banking sector to inflate prices outside of the Valley.

Emphasis on construction of hydro projects and road network is a good one. Even if no work happens in the foreseeable future, it has to be reiterated again and again. The inadequate supply of infrastructure is the most binding constraint to economic growth. Build more roads and hydro projects, connect more places with markets and production sites, and facilitate internal as well as external trade (and production).

Promotion of industrial activities should be coordinated with promotion of exports sector. It will not only generate more reserves but also increase employment and substantially contribute to growth. While doing so, we should also promote industries (by staying within the boundary of WTO commitments and the available policy space for us to maneuver industrial policy to promote industrialization) that can compete with imported goods.

At the end of the day, things will work only if there are enabling conditions for enterprises to foster. Some of these are good industry-labor relations, enough power to power up machinery, no strikes both on streets and in industries, comfortable fiscal space to finance incentives and concessionary packages, good governance, easy flow of credit at low interest to key sectors, and enveloping industrial sector from the fallout of nonsensical endless political bickering.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

Landlocked countries’ comparative advantage and services trade

In a new policy working paper, Borchert et al. argue that protection of services sector (telecommunications and air transport) by landlocked countries is not a smart policy because it is the one of the few sectors in which they have comparative advantage.

They find that even moderate liberalization in these sectors could lead to an increase of cellular subscriptions by 7 percentage points and a 20 percent increase in the number of flights. Specifically, liberalizing policies from the level of the median country (STRI = 50) to the level of first quartile (STRI = 25) would on average result in an increase of cellular subscriptions by 7 percentage points and an increase in mainlines by 4 percentage points. And, in the air transport sector, a reform of aviation policies with similar impact, such that the STRI score would fall from 50 to 25, is estimated to be associated with a 20 percent increase in the number of flights. Countries with highly restrictive aviation policies have on average 39 percent fewer flights per airline than liberal countries.

They argue that poor policies lead to more concentrated market structures and more limited access to services than landlocked countries would otherwise have. They suggest increasing the maximum foreign capital participation limit from a minority to a majority stake.

Two suggestions:

  • First, international assistance for transport and telecommunications infrastructure needs to be complemented by policy reform.
  • Second, in transport services, there is a strong case for multilateral negotiations because there are limits to what unilateral reform can achieve. We address each aspect in turn.

Here is the abstract of the paper:


A new cross-country database on services policy reveals a perverse pattern: many landlocked countries restrict trade in the very services that connect them with the rest of the world. On average, telecommunications and air-transport policies are significantly more restrictive in landlocked countries than elsewhere. The phenomenon is most starkly visible in Sub-Saharan Africa and is associated with lower levels of political accountability. This paper finds evidence that these policies lead to more concentrated market structures and more limited access to services than these countries would otherwise have, even after taking into account the influence of geography and incomes, and the possibility that policy is endogenous. Even moderate liberalization in these sectors could lead to an increase of cellular subscriptions by 7 percentage points and a 20 percent increase in the number of flights. Policies in other countries, industrial and developing alike, also limit competition in international transport services. Hence, "trade-facilitating" investments under various "aid-for-trade" initiatives are likely to earn a low return unless they are accompanied by meaningful reform in these services sectors.


They provide examples of Laos, Nepal and Zambia. In their analysis they control for the adverse influences of geography and low incomes, the two most likely determinants of poor performance. Also, they take policy to be endogenously determined because policies are influenced by lobbying for protection by interest groups or industries.

They argue that “aid for trade” to landlocked countries to improve their ports, airports and customs might not  yield expected results in the absence of the liberalization of air transport services (or limited competition among service providers) that would greatly enhance the impact of AfT.


About Nepal, the report has the following info:

  • Nepal Airlines, plagued by poor management and political interference, has seen its financial situation weakened and its fleet shrunk to two Boeing 757s and four twin otters. By virtue of being the designated airline, it occupies crucial space in BASAs, which it is incapable of exploiting. One of the key hubs is Delhi, where the number of seats is limited to 6000 per week for each side, but Nepal Airlines uses only 1,300 seats of the Nepali quota. Japan has refused to grant fifth freedom rights on the Kathmandu-Shanghai-Osaka route, and China may be restricting flights on the Kathmandu-Lhasa route.
  • Nepal granted exclusive licenses in the fixed line segment until 2009 to United Telecommunications Limited (with majority Indian Government ownership) and in mobile to Spice Telecom (with majority Kazakh ownership), effectively creating duopolies in each segment between these firms and the state-owned firm. [Update is needed in the paper: Spice Telecom is Ncell now and there are other three telecom operators, which means it is not a duopoly. It is at best monopolistic competition.]

Wednesday, January 11, 2012

NTY 2011 reviewed: Year of half measures

[It was published in Republica, January 10, 2012, p.6]


Year of half measures

Nepal Tourism Year (NTY) 2011 was launched with great fanfare last year. It was one of the rare moments when public, private sector, government and political parties came together for a common cause—to make NTY a success. One of the main targets was to attract one million visitors, of which 40 percent was targeted from India and China. The last time such a mega campaign was launched was in 1998 when around 464,000 tourists visited Nepal, earning US$248 million in revenue. The Nepali tourism industry has come a long way since 6,179 tourists visited Nepal in 1962, followed by introduction of Tourism Master Plan in 1972 and consolidated Tourism Policy in 1995.

As it stands now, though the target to attract a million visitors was not attained, investment and commercial activities did increase in this sector. The target was missed because of the incompetency of our government to launch supportive initiatives, political instability and the sector’s inability to float cost effective innovative packages. Meanwhile, commercial activities increased due to high expectation of increasing revenue, which were not fully met, of stakeholders.

When the NTY campaign was launched, many argued, including yours truly (see Constraints on NTY 2011, Republica, March 14, 2010), that the target was ambitious. It was argued that given the poor state of tourism infrastructure, fickle strikes and political instability, insecurity, uncompetitive products and lack of innovation, the target won’t be realized. Furthermore, the suggestion was to focus on making our tourism products competitive and increasing expenditure per visitor. After all, the purpose of NTY was, along with the high flow of tourists, to generate revenue, support more jobs and create investment opportunities. The worrisome fact is that even after completion of the campaign, these constraints remain unaddressed.

Before elaborating on these, let us look at the state of tourism sector in 2011.Though the total number of visitors via land is yet to be compiled, preliminary estimates show that it will be around 750,000, including 544,185 via air. In 2010, the total visitors (both via air and land) were around 603,000. It means approximately 24 percent growth of visitors—a significant achievement in itself. Though the goal to bring in 40 percent of total visitors from our neighbors was not attained, there nevertheless was an increase in the flow of tourists from these countries. About 145,338 Indian and 45,400 Chinese tourists visited Nepal via air last year. The visitors from almost all the traditional source countries, except Bangladesh, increased between 2011 and 2010. The largest growth in tourist inflows was from China (77.6 percent) and India (39.1 percent). The highest number of visitors via air was from India (26.7 percent of total visitors), followed by China (8.33 percent), USA, the UK, France, Japan and Germany.

 

The preliminary figures and tourism promotion initiatives carried out in 2011 reaffirm the point that along with the ambitious target, the priorities and strategies were misplaced, and necessary legwork for promotional strategies in major destinations were not carried out. Notably, the constraints that were restraining the tourism industry to realize its full potential are still not addressed, making our tourism industry uncompetitive. It affects both potential tourist inflows and revenue generation, which was around 2.4 percent of GDP in 2010 (a decline from 5.1 percent of GDP in 1998). Note that Nepal ranks 112 out of 139 economies in the latest Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI).

First, as always, the political parties failed to keep their promises to spare tourism from the fallout of their selfish and endless bickering, which often spilled over to this industry and on to the streets. Just days after the written commitment to let tourism industry function smoothly and to refrain from organizing strikes, the disgruntled political supporters of UCPN (M) took to the street and imposed banda. Though the frequency of banda is relatively low since then, it nevertheless is imposed intermittently, which is tarnishing the intended good image of Nepal as a secure tourist destination. The picture of tourists dragging their suitcases up to the airport gave a negative impression of a fluid political and security situation. In terms of safety and security in tourism industry, Nepal ranks 127 out of 139 economies.

Second, labor disputes and excessive unionism demoralized tourism entrepreneurs. The incessant demand for wage and compensation revision took a nasty turn when one after another union forced closure of several hotels and restaurants, vandalized assets, obstructed management from taking managerial decisions, and harassed investors. At times, guests were compelled to seek alternative arrangements for accommodation and food as a result of abrupt shut down of hotels and restaurants. It made visitors wary of their security and forced them to cut short planned stay, which also means less revenue.

Third, tourism infrastructure was hardly enhanced by the government. The private sector did its part by investing in construction of additional rooms, dining spaces and recreation activities. But, this was not matched by government initiatives. No new airport was constructed and there was hardly any improvement in the condition of and services in existing airports. Also, while many international airlines added new and more flights to Kathmandu, Nepal Airlines Corporation continued to incur losses and failed to add new aircrafts. In terms of tourism infrastructure (including hotel rooms) and ground transport, Nepal ranks 130 and 135, respectively, out of 139 economies in TTCI 2011.

The government did not even provide enough funds to regional tourism chapters to launch street festivals and promotional campaigns. The coordinator of NTY 2011 Coordination Committee—Western Nepal, Biplab Poudel, argues that it provided just 0.7 million of 16 million requested for such purposes in Pokhara. In fact, Restaurant and Bar Association of Nepal (REBAN), Pokhara chapter had to institutionally foot the bill of such activities.

Additionally, Nepal Tourism Board (NTB) started putting up hoarding boards and advertisement inside the country instead of adequately doing so abroad, mainly in India and China—our main source of visitors. It was only in November that the NTB began advertising NTY on CNN and BBC. Partly, the delay in launching time sensitive promotional schemes was caused by the requirement for the NTB to adhere to the government’s procurement act, which is unnecessarily cumbersome and lengthy. But, still some of its priorities and activities were misplaced. Tourism entrepreneurs wondered if the focus was on foreign visitors or domestic tourism. The Indian and Chinese economies are growing at impressive rates and so is per capita income of their citizens, who are increasingly traveling abroad for cultural as well as recreational purposes. We should be targeting them more than trying to attract budget tourists, who are highly sensitive to exchange rate and price fluctuations, from other countries. The Lakeside tourism entrepreneurs argue that more than Nepali vacationers, it is foreign tourists who bargain over room rate, food prices and services. For instance, Baibhav Poudel, executive director of Byanjan Grill, maintains that the biggest spenders in his restaurant are domestic tourists. This view is echoed by other tourism entrepreneurs, who also feel that the NTY’s priorities were misplaced and it failed to meet expectations.

Fourth, apart from investing more in rooms and redesigned restaurants, the tourism entrepreneurs failed to provide attractive and innovative packages to visitors. The accommodation, services and food are as expensive as in most of our competitors in the international market. They expected more out of NTY but failed to play their own part in making the industry attractive to foreigners.

Overall, it is an achievement that more tourists visited Nepal last year. But, the target was not met due to the inability of political parties to honor their commitments, the government’s half-hearted initiatives to promote this sector, and the private sector’s inability to offer cost competitive innovative packages. There was more noise about NTY, for which the government allocated 380 million, inside than outside of Nepal.

[Published in Republica, January 10, 2012, p.6]


Friday, January 6, 2012

Merchandise exports and imports by development region in Nepal

Here is an interesting chart that shows share of total merchandise exports and imports by development region during fiscal year 2010/11. Total merchandise exports in 2010/11 was Rs 64.56 billion and total merchandise imports was Rs 397.54 billion.

The highest merchandise exports originated from Eastern Development Region, which accounted for 47.83% of total exports (about Rs 30.88 billion). It was followed by Central Development Region (Rs 28.87 billion) and Western Development Region (Rs 3.11 billion).

The highest merchandise imports was by Central Development Region,which accounted for 68.49% of total imports (about Rs 272.28 billion). It was followed by Western Development Region (Rs 13.86 billion) and Eastern Development Region (Rs 13.81 billion).

Interesting (but unsurprising) observation is that highest exports has occurred from regions with highest concentration of industries. And, highest imports is by regions with highest population (and population density)/consumption. These could affect incentives such as tax holidays, supply of infrastructures, and other facilities aimed at promoting industrialization in different parts of the country.