Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Challenges to railways connection in South Asia

Following the two-day Inter-governmental Committee (IGC) meeting of commerce secretaries of Nepal and India, India has agreed to waive off additional customs duty on 162 Nepali export items.It had imposed an additional customs duty on 331 Nepali exportable items in 2006. It waived off the duty on 169 items in 2008, but continued to impose duty on 162 items. The waiver will come into effect from Mach 2012. It is good news to Nepalese exports exporting goods (such as metal products, steel, iron alloy, copper sheet, yarn, textile and cotton, tea, ginger) to India.

The two sides also agreed to hold a meeting to review the Railway Service Agreement (RSA). Nepal has been pushing for the revision of RSA to pave the way for linking cargo train services between Birgunj dry port and Bangladesh via Rohanpur-Shinghabad route, and Visakhapatnum port in India. It appears that both sides are positive to operationalize Rohanpur-Shinghabad railway line and Visakhapatnam ports at the earliest. Meanwhile, at the 17th SAARC Summit in Addu, the Maldives, the attending heads of state decided to finalize a Regional Railways Agreement and complete the preparatory work on an Indian Ocean Cargo and Passenger Ferry Service by the end of this year. The declaration also decided on early demonstration run of a Bangladesh-India-Nepal container train.

Establishing railways link between nations is not an easy task because each time a train passes through a country it is under different jurisdiction, and the operating cost and hence pricing could be different in the connected countries. There has to be transnational railways policy coherence to run such arrangements smoothly and successfully. And, ensuring this coherence is more of political stint than anything else. It would require political will to let the transnational railways system run by an independent body that can fix prices and operate under set guidelines under different jurisdictions.

Below are three fundamental points outlined by Paul Collier in a discussion related to transnational railways initiative in Africa. It is relevant to the proposed railways connection in South Asia (and between Nepal and India).


Railways are a primary example of a network industry. The key feature of a network industry is that its operations are so interconnected that it is more efficient to run it as a single entity. This presents an unavoidable role for public policy: how to manage a monopoly provider in the public interest.

They are a classic example of high fixed costs relative to operating costs. In the parlance of economics, the marginal cost—the cost of producing one more unit—is well below the average cost. For social efficiency, prices should be set around the marginal cost, but for an activity to be commercially viable prices must at least equal the average cost. This tension in pricing calls for a political solution: typically either a subsidy from the government or cross-subsidization from users who are not very price sensitive to those who depend on cheap rail service.

The mainland continent of Africa is split into so many countries that inevitably rail lines need to be international, especially because many of the countries that would benefit most are landlocked. Yet a transnational network investment is potentially at risk from each national polity. Indeed, each time rolling stock crosses borders a valuable asset moves into a new jurisdiction.

Because African governments have yet to tackle these three political challenges, the African rail network remains inadequate.


Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Spurring growth in Nepal during crisis

Here is the PowerPoint presentation I used during a guest lecture at Department of Conflict, Peace and Development Studies, Tribhuvan University, Kathmandu, Nepal.

Spurring Growth During Crisis_2011-12-05

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Nepal was sixth highest remittance receiver (share of GDP) in 2010

In a new Migration and Development brief No.17, the WB economists estimate that remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to reach $351 billion in 2011, up by 8 percent from 2010 level. Their projection show remittance flows to developing countries are expected to grow by 7.3 percent in 2012, 7.9 percent in 2013 and 8.4 percent in 2014, to reach $441 billion by 2014. These forecasted rates of growth are considerably lower than those seen prior to the global financial crisis, when the annual increases in remittances to developing countries averaged 20 percent during 2003-08.

Worldwide remittance flows, including those to high-income countries, are expected to be around $406 billion in 2011 and exceed $515 billion by 2014.

Top remittance receivers

The new estimates show that the top recipients of remittances among developing countries in 2011 are India ($58 billion), followed by China ($57 bn), Mexico ($24 bn), the Philippines ($23 bn), Pakistan ($12 bn), Bangladesh ($12 bn), Nigeria ($11 bn), Vietnam ($9 bn), Egypt ($8 bn) and Lebanon ($8 bn).

In terms of remittances as a share of GDP in 2010, Tajikistan was the top country receiving remittances amounting to 31 percent of GDP. It was followed by Lesotho (29 percent), Samoa (25 percent), Moldova (23 percent), Kyrgyz Rep. (21 percent), Nepal (20 percent), Tonga (20 percent), Lebanon (20 percent), Kosovo (17 percent), and El Salvador (16 percent).

Remittances estimate for 2011

  • Remittance flows to Latin America and the Caribbean are estimated to have increased by 7 percent after remaining almost flat in 2010.
  • Remittances to East Asia and Pacific region are estimated to have grown by 7.6 percent, to Eastern Europe and Central Asia by 11 percent, and to South Asia by 10.1 percent.

South Asian migrants’ destination

  • A significant share (53 percent) of South Asia’s remittances come from the six GCC countries. About 18 percent comes from the US, 12 percent from Western Europe, 11 percent from other high income countries, and 6 percent from developing countries. The figures related to those of 2010.
  • Migrant deployments from Bangladesh grew strongly, by 37 percent, in the first three-quarters of 2011 (after registering a 20 percent decline the previous year).
  • Remittance flows to India (the largest recipient among developing countries) appear to have been relatively more affected by the weak employment in the US and by the debt crisis in Europe.

Reasons for high inflows

  • The depreciation of the currencies of some large receiving countries (including Mexico, India and Bangladesh) created incentives to send remittances to take advantage of the “sale effect” on local currency assets.The higher purchasing power of each dollar of remittances may increase the incentive to remit in order to to take advantage of the higher purchasing power in the home country.
  • Flows to countries in Asia were buoyed by high oil prices and increase in remittance outflows from Russia to Central Asia, and from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries to South and East Asia.
  • Oil driven economic activities and increased spending on infrastructure development are making these destinations attractive for migrants from developing countries.
  • Remittances from the GCC countries to Bangladesh and Pakistan (where the GCC countries account for 60 percent or more of overall remittance inflows) grew by 8 percent and 31 percent respectively in the first three quarters of 2011 on a year-on-year basis.

Outlook

  • The persistent unemployment in the EU and the US and debt crisis will adversely affect employment prospects of existing migrants and harden political attitudes toward new immigration.
  • Volatile exchange rates and uncertainty about the direction of oil prices also present further risks to the outlook for remittances.

Cost of remitting

  • Remittance costs have fallen steadily from 8.8 percent in 2008 to 7.3 percent in the third quarter of 2011. However, remittance costs continue to remain high, especially in Africa and in small nations where remittances provide a life line to the poor.
  • There is evidence that costs have been falling in high volume remittance corridors, such as from the US to Mexico, UK to India and Bangladesh, and France to North Africa.

Remittance inflows to Nepal

In 2009, remittances accounted for 22.9 percent of GDP and Nepal was the fifth highest receiver. In 2010, it is 20 percent of GDP and sixth highest receiver.

This does not mean that total remittances inflows has gone down. It has definitely gone up. Total remittance inflows in 2010 was $3.468 billion, which is estimated to reach $3.951 billion in 2011. In 2009, it was $2.985 billion. If you look at the y-o-y growth rate of remittance inflows, then it was 16 percent in 2010 and is estimated to be 14 percent in 2011.

Remittance inflows might increase in next year as more workers leave to the GCC countries for employment. I think the construction work in Qatar for World Cup in 2022 will increase demand for Nepali workers. Also, the high price of oil and construction boom in the gulf countries will draw in more migrant workers. These factors might increase remittance inflows to Nepal. Currently, the depreciation of Nepalese rupee against dollar is increasing the size of remittance inflows.

[If this blog post about remittances is not mouth full to you, then check out this blog post based on a comprehensive migration survey in Nepal. If it still isn’t enough, then check this one out! Dig in the data here.]


Remittance flows to South Asia is expected to be $90 billion in 2011 and forecast for 2012, 2013 and 2014 are $97 billion, $105 billion, and $114 billion respectively. More than half of it goes to India.

Remittance flows to LDCs is expected to be $27 billion in 2011 and forecast for 2012, 2013 and 2014 are $29 billion, $32 billion, and $35 billion respectively.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Nepal’s top ten exports to and imports from India and China

Alternatively, it can also be India’s and China’s top imports from and exports to Nepal, if we assume that exports from Nepal to India (or China) equal imports by India (or China) from Nepal.
In 2010, the top ten exports of Nepal to India were textiles; ferrous metals; chemical, rubber, plastic; crops; beverages and tobacco product; metals; vegetables, fruits, nuts; food products; minerals; and leather products. Basically, its primary commodities. Meanwhile, the top ten exports of Nepal to China were wood products; metal products; textiles; mineral products; leather products; wearing apparel; chemical, rubber, plastic; machinery and equipment; vegetable oils an fats; and crops. Basically, no high value added products.

In 2010, the top ten imports of Nepal from India were petroleum, coal products; chemical, rubber, plastic; ferrous metals; machinery and equipment; mineral products; textiles; transport equipment; food products; motor vehicles and parts; and metals. Basically, the imports (demand) from India are pretty much price inelastic. Hence, the widening trade deficit, no matter what happens to the economy! Meanwhile, the top ten imports of Nepal from China were wearing apparel; textiles; electronic equipment; machinery and equipment; leather products; vegetables, fruits, nuts; chemical, rubber, plastic; manufacturers; metal products; and motor vehicles and parts. Basically, most of these are price elastic. The problem is that Nepal cannot produce them as competitively as the Chinese producers do because of the industrial ills and high cost of labor.

Interesting stuff:
  • The total value of top ten exports by Nepal to India is approximately USD 226 short of the value of top import (petroleum, coal products) from India. Nepal’s top export to India (textiles) is just USD 20 million higher than the value of textiles import from India.
  • The total value of top ten exports by Nepal to China is approximately 16 times less than the top import (wearing apparel) from China. China’s tenth top export to Nepal (motor vehicles and parts) is USD 4.6 million higher than Nepal’s top export (wood products) to China.
The data is sourced from UNCOMTRADE database using WITS. It is at 2-digit level (GTAP nomenclature). I will have a similar blog post about India’s and China’s top ten exports to and imports from world.
Here is previous blog post on the growth rate, exports, imports and Nepal’s trade deficit with China and India.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Total road network in Nepal (1974-2010)

An insufficient supply of infrastructure is identified as the major binding constraint to growth in Nepal. Road network is one of most important infrastructures that helps in opening up new markets, linking markets, and enhancing development of supply chains, among others.



 

*First eight months data


In 1974/75, total road network created was 3173 kilometer, of which 1575 km was black topped, 416 km was graveled, and 1182 km was fair weathered roads. In 1990/91, total road network created was 8328 kilometer, of which 3083 km was black topped, 2181 km was graveled, and 3064 km was fair weathered roads. In 2000/01, total road network created was 17702 kilometer, of which 4566 km was black topped, 3786 km was graveled, and 7350 km was fair weathered roads. In 2010/11, total road network created was 21455 kilometer, of which 6874 km was black topped, 5036 km was graveled, and 9545 km was fair weathered roads. Overall, construction of fair weathered road is increasing more than the other two.

Nepal signs Double Tax Avoidance Agreement with India

Nepal and India signed Double Tax Avoidance Agreement (DTAA) on November 27, 2011. It follows the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPPA) signed on October 21, 2011. It replaces the agreement signed in 1987.

Here is a piece by Rameshore Prasad Khanal, economic advisor to the PM.


[…] Having witnessed the process of negotiations until perhaps the final shape of the agreement emerged, it´s quite a story.

However, let me first begin with the opinion widely gaining currency immediately after the signing of the deal -- now famously known by the acronym BIPPA -- that Nepal could not get the Tax Agreement concluded which could have benefited the country and instead signed the one that would be in the Indian interest. This is the reasoning based on the analogy that what we do first is always in their interest and what we delay or cannot accomplish would have been in our interest. Both are mutual agreements and are in the interest of both the countries.

Nevertheless, the advantage would go to the one who maximizes the opportunities that these agreements open up. In fact, more than the Tax Agreement, Nepal would gain from BIPPA, as we need huge investments to meet our infrastructural needs and scale up manufacturing operations so that extra manpower from agriculture could be shifted to lucrative manufacturing jobs. We already had a Tax Agreement signed in 1987. This was generally sufficient for elimination of the chance of imposing taxes in the two countries for the same income. Any Indian company doing business in Nepal under the Nepalese law and paying taxes for such income would not be required to pay tax in India to the extent it is paid in Nepal. If tax liability in India is more than in Nepal then such a taxpayer would pay only the difference. As far as the elimination of the incidence of double taxation is concerned, the new Tax Agreement does not add substantial value. In that sense, considering the new Tax Agreement a better deal for us than BIPPA is just an expression of ignorance.

The pertinent question here is why the two countries agreed to have a new agreement completely replacing the 1987 agreement.

Tax Agreements between two countries are the outcomes of mutual consultation, but in recent years they draw heavily on the model Tax Conventions issued by OECD or the UN.
All past agreements that Nepal concluded are based on the two conventions. Both these conventions change frequently in light of the emerging trade and investment issues among countries. Particularly after 9/11, OECD model has seen dramatic changes that took tough negotiations between countries. Many countries saw tax havens as either a source of terrorist financing or place where terrorist could park money without much scrutiny. This is a threat to security everywhere. As a result, many countries thought that information exchange between tax authorities could help track down not only cases of deliberate default of tax but also location of illegal money. OECD Model Tax Convention now includes significant provisions for information exchange that can be used for tax purposes or even for any other purpose as per the law. A contracting state cannot decline to supply information just because the information is held by a bank or other financial institution or any trustee.

As India is obliged to follow OECD model because of its commitment in G-20, the request for amendment to 1987 agreement came from India some four years ago. Initial attempts to hold bilateral negotiations on the proposed amendment failed because of frequent change of government on our side. Finally, the negotiation started after the formation of a new government following the Constituent Assembly election.

During the first round of negotiations, our system was not comfortable on the inclusion of “information exchange” clause. It took quite a while for us to realize that the information exchange clause could actually be used to our advantage. The reason is that those who evade Nepali taxes usually siphon off money to the Indian financial market.
On the contrary, Indians evading taxes often stash money in highly secretive Swiss Banks (however, this is now no longer possible as Switzerland is also willing to share information that is kept as bank secrets provided Swiss government is requested for details of the suspected funds). The agreement empowers Nepal´s tax authorities to seek assistance of Indian counterparts in locating funds that escaped the Nepali tax net. This is certainly a good provision.

Aside from this entirely new elaborate feature, the new agreement reduces the number aggregate of days in a year to 90 only (from earlier 183) for a consulting or service business set up to be termed as “resident” for the purpose of taxation. This certainly increases Nepal´s tax base as there are more Indian consulting companies working in Nepal than our companies working in India. The new agreement reduces the rate of tax dividends paid by the resident company of Nepal to the resident company of India to five percent if the Indian company is holding at least 10 percent of the shares of the Nepali resident company.

For holding below 10 percent the applicable rate is 10 percent. As the rate of dividend tax in Nepal is already low the reduction simply reflects the existing laws of the country. Similarly, the applicable rate of tax on interest payment from a person of one country to the person of another country has been reduced to 10 percent. The new agreement includes provision for the taxation of capital gains, which was not covered in the earlier agreement. The income of Nepali students studying in India will not be subject to Indian taxation for six years. This limit earlier was only three years.

The most significant feature of the new agreement is that anyone living a cozy life in India by defaulting on Nepali taxes in the past can now be brought to book. Nepali tax authorities can obtain assistance of Indian authorities to collect any revenue claims, not just income tax, from a person living in India whose taxes are due in Nepal. If the request is so made the Indian authorities will use the powers as per their law as though they were collecting their own tax arrears. If there is a request from Indian side, Nepali authorities should certainly reciprocate.


Friday, November 25, 2011

Types of non-tariff barriers (NTBs)

With fast decline in tariffs due to multilateral, regional, bilateral and unilateral liberalizations, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) have become the most important trade policy tool of almost all countries. Some of the commonly used NTBs, sourced from Hiau Looi Kee and Cristina Neagu’s presentation, are listed below:

  • Origin of materials and parts
  • Import license fees
  • Customs inspection fees
  • Testing requirement
  • Direct consignment requirement
  • Requirement to pass through specified port
  • Service charges
  • Labeling requirements
  • Certification requirement
  • Processing history
  • Systems Approach
  • Temporary geographic prohibition for SP
  • Conformity assessments related to SPS
  • Traceability information requirements
  • Certification required by the exporting agencies
  • Storage and transport conditions
  • Microbiological criteria on the final product
  • Quarantine requirement

Tariffs and NTBs can be either substitute or complementary depending on context. To protect key sectors, countries might increase ad valorem equivalent of NTBs by the same magnitude (keeping protection at its optimal level) of a decrease resulting from slashing tariffs, making them substitutes. Meanwhile, trade policies influenced by interests parties through lobbies and government’s care about social welfare as well as campaign contributions would be to both tariffs and NTBs, making it complementary.

NTBs are harder to implement than tariffs as the latter are more transparent in nature. Some NTBs (like RoO) affect multiple industries while tariffs are more targeted. NTBs are not primary revenue generators as tariffs are, which are important for developing countries.

The authors conclude that tariffs and NTBs could be substitutes within importer-HS6 products, comparing across exporters. Example: preferential tariffs often come with RoO requirements. Also, tariffs and NTBs could be compliments within importer-exporter pair, comparing across products. Example: products that have low tariff barriers often have lower NTBs.