Tuesday, April 15, 2008

BOP, Cellphones, and Poverty Reduction

The NYT has a special report (Can the Cellphone Help End Global Poverty?) about how businesses are reaching out the bottom billions and how cellphones can help reduce poverty in the developing countries. Sounds something like the Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) concept of CK Parhalad! Cellphones are increasingly being used by rural farmers to check market prices in real time. More symmetric information flow leads to market clearance, which obviously is far from perfect in this imperfect world. Technology that is customized to the needs, capacity, and ability of the bottom billion helps to bridge the gap between perfection and imperfection.

I found one study particularly amazing: A study by London Business School in 2005 concluded that for every additional 10 mobile phones per 100 people, a country’s G.D.P. rises 0.5 percent. This is quite an extrapolative finding because though I do believe that cellphones help to speed up the rate of transmission of information (see Greg Clarks book 'A Farewell to Alms' to know how faster was the rate of transmission of information after the discovery of telephone- an aiding factor for the industrial revolution in England), it does not directly help raise GDP by 0.5%. Contradictory example: look at the increase in rate of cellphone owners in Nepal and the sluggish GDP growth rate). But no doubt, people can do wonders by using cellphones! More on the use of wireless communication from The Economist: Mobility: Nomads at last. Watch a related video here.

...This sort of on-the-ground intelligence-gathering is central to what’s known as human-centered design, a business-world niche that has become especially important to ultracompetitive high-tech companies trying to figure out how to write software, design laptops or build cellphones that people find useful and unintimidating and will thus spend money on. Several companies, including Intel, Motorola and Microsoft, employ trained anthropologists to study potential customers, while Nokia’s researchers, including Chipchase, more often have degrees in design. Rather than sending someone like Chipchase to Vietnam or India as an emissary for the company — loaded with products and pitch lines, as a marketer might be — the idea is to reverse it, to have Chipchase, a patently good listener, act as an emissary for people like the barber or the shoe-shop owner’s wife, enlightening the company through written reports and PowerPoint presentations on how they live and what they’re likely to need from a cellphone, allowing that to inform its design.

...To get a sense of how rapidly cellphones are penetrating the global marketplace, you need only to look at the sales figures. According to statistics from the market database Wireless Intelligence, it took about 20 years for the first billion mobile phones to sell worldwide. The second billion sold in four years, and the third billion sold in two. Eighty percent of the world’s population now lives within range of a cellular network, which is double the level in 2000. And figures from the International Telecommunications Union show that by the end of 2006, 68 percent of the world’s mobile subscriptions were in developing countries.

...“You don’t even need to own a cellphone to benefit from one,” says Paul Polak, author of “Out of Poverty: What Works When Traditional Approaches Fail” and former president of International Development Enterprises, a nonprofit company specializing in training and technology for small-plot farmers in developing countries. Part of I.D.E.’s work included setting up farm cooperatives in Nepal, where farmers would bring their vegetables to a local person with a mobile phone, who then acted as a commissioned sales agent, using the phone to check market prices and arranging for the most profitable sale. “People making a dollar a day can’t afford a cellphone, but if they start making more profit in their farming, you can bet they’ll buy a phone as a next step,” Polak says.

...Robert Jensen, an economics professor at Harvard University, tracked fishermen off the coast of Kerala in southern India, finding that when they invested in cellphones and started using them to call around to prospective buyers before they’d even got their catch to shore, their profits went up by an average of 8 percent while consumer prices in the local marketplace went down by 4 percent.

...Public health workers in South Africa now send text messages to tuberculosis patients with reminders to take their medication. In Kenya, people can use S.M.S. to ask anonymous questions about culturally taboo subjects like AIDS, breast cancer and sexually transmitted diseases, receiving prompt answers from health experts for no charge.

...A cellphone in the hands of an Indian fisherman who uses it to grow his business — which presumably gives him more resources to feed, clothe, educate and safeguard his family — represents a textbook case of bottom-up economic development, a way of empowering individuals by encouraging entrepreneurship as opposed to more traditional top-down approaches in which aid money must filter through a bureaucratic chain before reaching its beneficiaries, who by virtue of the process are rendered passive recipients.

...Ugandans are using prepaid airtime as a way of transferring money from place to place, something that’s especially important to those who do not use banks. Someone working in Kampala, for instance, who wishes to send the equivalent of $5 back to his mother in a village will buy a $5 prepaid airtime card, but rather than entering the code into his own phone, he will call the village phone operator (“phone ladies” often run their businesses from small kiosks) and read the code to her. She then uses the airtime for her phone and completes the transaction by giving the man’s mother the money, minus a small commission. It’s a rather ingenious practice...an example of grass-roots innovation, in which people create new uses for technology based on need...

Thursday, April 10, 2008

Economics Conference at Elizabethtown College

Here are the pictures (actually summary of my one day errand in pictures!)  from the 8th Annual Student Economics and Business Conference, where I presented my paper 'Exploring the link between Poverty and Growth,' at Elizabethtown College, PA. The campus and the conference hall, plus the audience, were all great!

on the way to conference

On the way to the conference...

before conference

Peace time before my presentation...

conference place

The Hoover Center, conference hall

conference

My time to listen...

conference1

My time to present...

conference2

Again...on Poverty & Growth...

conference3

Now comes Inequality, Poverty & Growth...

conference4

Then some crazy graphs and statistics...

elizabethtown

Out of the conference...

waiting for Amtrak

Waiting for Amtrak

Indian dinner with Kshitiz

Dinner time: Indian food with Kshitiz at Harrisburg

passed out

Then passed out...too tired!!!

back in the house

Finally, back in the house at Dickinson College...

Tuesday, April 8, 2008

Botswana: For how long can it spark on diamonds?

The IMF Working Paper series has published a new report that looks at the sustainability of rising Botswanian expenditure financed by diamond mining, which contributes on average 38.5 percent to GDP. Since the past three decades Botswana economy has grown at a rate of 7 percent, usually due to diamond mining and good investment climate. For more on the role of good investment climate check out a paper by AJR on Botswana: An African Success Story. They argue that Botswana has been able to grow and attract investment because of the strong institutions of private property.
This new report from the IMF African Department is titled "Are Diamonds Forever? Using the Permanent Income Hypothesis to Analyze Botswana’s Reliance on Diamond Revenue". Obviously, the conclusion is that Botswana will not be able to sustain the current level of high expenditure just from the diamond mining and trade. Recommendation: it needs to save (to the tune of 1.2 points of GDP each year) to ensure a policy of no debt because diamond reserve could deplete by 2029, leading to sharp shortfall in fiscal revenue (by almost two-thirds). Here is the summary:

This study assesses the sustainability of Botswana's diamond-related fiscal revenue. Diamond reserves are not adequate to generate enough permanent revenue to sustain a high level of expenditure. Under the current fiscal rule that no debt may be accumulated, Botswana will have to save more to avoid an abrupt adjustment in the medium term.
Also, check out IMF's Finance and Development magazine, March 2008. The title for the issue is Commodity Boom: How Long Will It Last?

Thursday, April 3, 2008

Zoellick’s “One Percent Solution” to Africa’s problems

Today I attended a discussion forum organized by the Center for Global Development (CGD) in DC. The World Bank President Robert B. Zoellick gave an interesting and insightful speech titled “A Challenge of Economic Statecraft.” Zoellick floated an idea to work with sovereign wealth funds, which amount to almost $3 trillion in assets, to create a “One Percent Solution” for equity investment in Africa. Watch the speech here and read the WB's press release here.

photo(2) He argued that if only one percent (around $30 billion) of this fund is invested in Africa, the African continent would be able to find its own “sources of growth”….wondering what own “sources of growth” mean? Well, this is kind of diversification of growth (which is not as much affected by the current financial crisis as the West is) China and India are experiencing right now. He wants to invest sovereign wealth funds in Africa so that they could find their own diversified “sources of growth.” Well, I wonder why with already more than $1.3 trillion of aid, the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is not still able to find its own “sources of growth”? Is the problem a lack of aid money (volume) or very few effective programs (efficient, down-to-earth) that utilizes local knowledge and stimulates local economy? Bill Easterly, any comments?... Also, he is in favor of more direct cash assistance rather than commodity assistance to effectively tackle hunger and poverty issues. This reminds me of Breakfast and Lunch Program and several other food assistance programs in the US.

Zoellick and Birdsall He made good points about finding solutions to the current food crisis and the need to pass the Doha Development Round by 2008. He argued for a “New Deal for Global Food Policy” so that the people in desperate need of food and nutrition are taken care of immediately in the short run and in the long run a sustainable agricultural “Green Revolution” should be created by helping build local food markets and by boosting farm production in the SSA. So, what does the WB did on its part? It invested in knowledge (research) and increased lending for agriculture in Africa from $450 million to $800 million. Again, more aid and lending! Can we reach the same goal by getting rid of astronomical subsidies and agriculture trade restrictions in the West? He is obviously against these restrictive measures though:

This moment of decision is not only for the Doha Round.  It is for trade itself. Powerful voices across the political spectrum, including in my own country, are calling for, and rationalizing, protectionism. This economic isolationism signals a defeatism that will reap the losses, not the gains, of globalization.

He also talked about Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), which basically encourages resource rich countries to publish and verify company payments and revenues from oil, gas and mining so their citizens can hold them more accountable.  The WB is now planning to launch EITI++, which would expand EITI to include such areas as the awarding of contracts, improving economic management, and investing revenues effectively in sustainable development.

Birdsall and Zoellick Overall, it was a good speech. The Q&A session was okay...a lot of time Bob digressed from the main point of the questions. Luckily, there was Nancy Birdsall, President of the CGD, who tried to keep him on track! I met with some professional and academic people during the lunch time. It was nice to build networks while staying in DC.    :)...Also, the first picture was taken by my friend Jehea Song using her beloved iphone! :-)

Highlights from the speech:

…There is a challenge of statecraft in times such as these: to recognize the changing landscape, often as events and fate rush by, so as to address pressing needs, while also planting seeds that may become the supportive timbers of the future.   Today, we need to counter immediate threats while also building an inclusive and sustainable globalization that will offer more sources of growth and innovation for the future, enhance multilateral cooperation to deal with shocks and downturns, and maximize opportunity and hope for all.

… We need a New Deal for Global Food Policy.   This New Deal should focus not only on hunger and malnutrition, access to food and its supply, but also the interconnections with energy, yields, climate change, investment, the marginalization of women and others, and economic resiliency and growth.   Food policy needs to gain the attention of the highest political levels, because no one country or group can meet these interconnected challenges. Skyrocketing food prices have increased attention to the larger challenge of overcoming hunger and malnutrition, the “Forgotten” U.N. Millennium Development Goal (MDG).

Zoellick …Hunger and malnutrition are a cause, not just a result, of poverty.

...  In many cases, cash or vouchers, as opposed to commodity support, is appropriate and can enable the assistance to build local food markets and farm production.   When commodities are needed, purchasing from local farmers can strengthen communities.   Funds can buy micro-nutrients customized to locations.   School lunch programs draw children to classrooms, while helping healthy kids to learn, and some offer parents food, too.

… A fairer and more open global trading system for agriculture will give more opportunities – and confidence – to African and other developing country farmers to expand production. Taxpayers and governments can save the costs of subsidies, improving budgets.

… The cuts in tariffs in both agriculture and manufactured goods will be through formulae that cut higher figures more than through a straight percentage; higher farm subsidies will also be cut more deeply… These negotiations are not worldwide poker contests, where Ministers hold cards tight, and a winner sweeps the pot of chips.   They are complex problem-solving exercises.   Everyone must return home with benefits and political explanations.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

GDP/GNI Per Natural: New way of measuring development!

Michael Clemens from CGD and Lant Pritchett from the KSG have come up with a new measure of development to reduce bias emerging from using income per capita (which only focuses on the nationally resident population) measure for economic analysis and policy design.

In a CGD working paper series titled "Income Per Natural: Measuring Development as if People Mattered More than Places," the authors argue that calculating national statistics by taking in consideration all the citizens (both living inside and outside the country) gives a clearer and an unbiased (regarding the policy prescriptions arising from such calculation) picture of the actual income of a person of a certain country.

They use income per natural, which is the annual income of persons born in a given country, regardless of where that person now resides. So what's the advantage of using this measure instead of just GDP or GNP per capita? The authors argue that it will give a systematic source of information on the average income of a person, irrespective of which country s/he resides  i.e. average income of a Turk, or a Nepali, or a Salvadoran.

One policy implication of this approach would be to look critically the way we fund poverty reduction initiatives in the developing countries. For instance, formulating a  wholesale  poverty reduction policy considering that 80% of Haitians live below the poverty line might be a bit misleading and out of touch of the reality because "26 percent of Haitian naturals who are not poor by the two-dollar-a-day standard live in the United States." Poverty reduction policies that take this new factor into account would be more realistic and may be effective as well. This is my wild guess! I really want to know more about the policy implications of designing development and poverty reduction strategies using this approach.

...If income per capita has any interpretation as a welfare measure, exclusive focus on the nationally resident population can lead to substantial errors of the income of the natural population for countries where emigration is an important path to greater welfare. The estimates differ substantially from traditional measures of GDP or GNI per resident, and not just for a handful of tiny countries. Almost 43 million people live in a group of countries whose income per natural collectively is 50 percent higher than GDP per resident. For 1.1 billion people the difference exceeds 10 percent. The authors also show that poverty estimates are different for national residents and naturals; for example, 26 percent of Haitian naturals who are not poor by the two-dollar-a-day standard live in the United States. These estimates are simply descriptive statistics and do not depend on any assumptions about how much of observed income differences across naturals is selection and how much is a pure location effect. Our conservative, if rough, estimate is that three quarters of this difference represents the effect of international migration on income per natural.

...The bottom line: migration is one of the most important sources of poverty reduction for a large portion of the developing world. If economic development is defined as rising human well being, then a residence-neutral measure of well-being emphasizes that crossing international borders is not an alternative to economic development, it is economic development.

Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Top remittance receivers in 2007

According to a WB report on Migration and Remittances Factbook 2007, the top five recipients of migrant remittances in 2007 were:

  1. India ($27 billion)

  2. China ($25.7 billion)

  3. Mexico ($25 billion)

  4. the Philippines ($17 billion)

  5. France ($12.5 billion)

The top emigration countries were:

  1. Mexico (11.5 million)/Russia (11.5 million)

  2. India (10.0 million)

  3. China (7.3 million)

  4. Ukraine (6.1 million)

  5. Bangladesh (4.9 million)

In 2007 alone recorded remittances flows worldwide are estimated to be $318 billion, of which $240 billion went to the developing countries. Here is the world's standing on migration and remittances. Nearly 200 million people (3% of the world population) live outside the country of their birth.

FAST FACTS ON MIGRATION & REMITTANCES

  • The top immigration countries, relative to population are Qatar (78 percent), the United Arab Emirates (71 percent), Kuwait (62 percent), Singapore (43 percent), Israel (40 percent), and Jordan (39 percent). The average share of immigrants in population is under 10 percent in high-income OECD countries.

  • The Mexico–United States corridor is the largest migration corridor in the world, accounting for 10.4 million migrants by 2005. Migration corridors in the Former Soviet Union— Russia–Ukraine and Ukraine–Russia —are the next largest, followed by Bangladesh–India. In these corridors, natives became migrants without moving when new international boundaries were drawn.

  • The volume of South–South migration is almost as large as that of South–North migration, which accounts for 47 percent of the total emigration from developing countries. South–South migration is larger than South–North migration in Sub-Saharan Africa (72 percent), Europe and Central Asia (64 percent), and South Asia (54 percent).

  • Smaller countries tend to have higher rates of skilled emigration. Almost all the physicians trained in Grenada and Dominica have emigrated abroad. St. Lucia, Cape Verde, Fiji, São Tomé and Principe, and Liberia are also among the countries with the highest emigration rates of physicians.

  • In 2007, the top recipient countries of recorded remittances were India, China, Mexico, the Philippines, and France. As a share of GDP, however, smaller countries such as Tajikistan (36 percent), Moldova (36 percent), Tonga (32 percent), the Kyrgyz Republic (27 percent), and Honduras (26 percent) were the largest recipients in 2006.

  • Rich countries are the main source of remittances. The United States is by far the largest, with $42 billion in recorded outward flows in 2006. Saudi Arabia ranks as the second largest, followed by Switzerland and Germany.

And, here is how my home country, Nepal, stands in this global migration and remittance picture:

  • Inward remittance flows: US$ 1453 million in 2006 (US$ 1600 million estimated for 2007)

  • Inward remittance flows amounted to 18% of GDP in 2006

  • Outward remittance flows: US$ 79 million in 2006

  • Outward remittance flows amounted to 1.0% of GDP in 2006

  • Top ten destination countries: India, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, United States, United Kingdom, Brunei, Republic of Korea, Japan, Germany, and Australia

  • Stock of emigrants as a percentage of population: 2.8% in 2005